Phila Phillies Batting Order STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. Andrew McCuthen L 33yr old OF

McCutchen has generally the same in splits for OPS. However he has much better power vs. Righties with .226 ISO compared to .118

2. Bryce Harper L 27 yrs OF

With a 1.074 OPS at home vs. Lefties this is a guy who has a .354 ISO in that split. Has the upside also for a stolen base vs. Righty if settling for that split you get a .225 ISO. Has stable numbers in putting up 35 HR’s on a regular season. This will be a shortened season.

3. JT Realmuto R 29 yrs C

Has the real power at over .240 ISO in 3 out of 4 splits not including Away vs. Righties. Fine numbers Slugging vs. Lefties at .524. This team has a lot of split adjustments to make and will not have battle the cold weather in Phily.

4. Rhys Hoskins 27 yrs R 1B/OF

A bit too high expectation were created for Rhys in 2017, 18 when he struck with high power numbers. Very nice BB% but very low BAPIP and BA. He created enough barrels to still be considered a nice overall power play.

5. Jean Segura 30 yrs R SS

Very worth playing at a good salary for his .563 SLG .274 ISO for an infielder obviously very good platoon split to take advantage of. Vs. Righties you just hope for a stolen base and/or a ground ball hit.

6.Didi Gregorius 30 yrs L SS

ONLY worth playing away from home last year, especially against lefties. If I was managing this team he would take a seat these days at home as even though he had a .355 OBP vs. Righties, he cannot steal a base. This Away split advantage was backed by a 31% HR/FB rate, even though he hit a lot of ground ballers in this split. We know exactly when to attack however moving forward based on 2018 as he had this outstanding split at home instead of on the road vs. Righties at the same Yankees park. Since the Away split from 2019 was too small, we move forward with the split vs. Righties as I expect his BA to bounce back up no matter where he plays.

7. Scott Kingery

8. Jay Bruce

9. Adam Haseley

 

  1. Odubel Herrera
  2. Roman Quinn

P1: Aaron Nola

P2: Zack Wheeler

P3: Vince Velasquez

P4: Zack Eflin

P5: Jake Arrieta

BP: Hector Heris

Seranthony Dominquez

Prospect: Spencer Howard

Marlins Roster: STAT Cast Batting Order Breakdown

  1.  J. Villar

Good on base stealer

2. Miguel Rojas only 5 hr in 500 AB’s

3. Brian Anderson 20-30 HR, and gets doubles

4. Jesus Aguilar

fresh start bounce back possible.

5. Corey Dickerson

hit over .300 as only guy. 40 extra base hits highest SLG as well value play

6. Jorge Alfaro

18 HR but not very good slugging

7. Lewis Brinson

Gpp play one of best springs hit .173 last year. In minors hit 106 HR.

8. Matt Joyce experiences on base value

9. Garrett Cooper

batted .281

Harold Ramirez

decent numbers overall nothing outstanding

P1: S. Alcantara

all-star: 2 shutouts lots of innings pitched but led in losses. Low price

P2: Caleb Smith aka Dr. K. 10 wins. ERA 4.52.

P3: Pablo Lopez: avg SO numbers. Did not give up too many homers but can attach

P4: Jose Urena: not much innings. Nice spring off speed pitcher no fast ball recovered from serious injury

Andy Gallagher’s 2020 NFL Draft Board Defensive Linemen Rankings

Sod what I wanted to do at least for a typical draft is for go one major position of choice that matters the least in fantasy production whether season long or dfs and that would be the interior lineman. Even though defensive tackles count for points in IDP’s its not a very productive position to play out during the year in a season long fantasy format. However, I could not leave certain guys out of my rankings for our season long IDP or Individual defensive players for 2010 because we may see a scenario in which there is only 1 edge rusher drafted atop all others and then a defensive tackle or 2 may likely come to be drafted in the top ten before another edge rusher who would seem more likely to get sacks then a defensive tackle would. So I just included edge rushers and defensive tackles together here who are likely to get sacks in overall fantasy production for the new rookies as well. Here’s how they rank for the 2020 nfl draft.

  1. Chase Young. Very obvious as he has refined skills in all phases of the rush and pass game.

Cubs Roster: STAT Cast Batting Order Breakdown

  1.  Almora Jr/Steven Souza

Only for speed and defense no batting skill for Almora. Souza had a .810 OPS 30 HR season in 17′, seeing if he can get back to .220 ISO and 16 SB season type with very hard contact which he hit in limited 2018 yr.

2. Rizzo

ISO regularly over 200 high Hr/ FB rate should drop a bit in overall OPS. BA and wOBA guy who has decent upside for homers

3. Bryant  —- Could lead off.

Nice power can produce consistent. STATcast shows decent speed and good xWOBA. Upside is also good for ISO

4. Baez

Stabilizes numbers past few years with ISO of at least 250 past

5. Scharber

Hard contact, Slugging, and Exit Velo beast. Semi consistent power and upside.

6. Happ

Happ flashed excellent plate discipline, proven SLG, and very good barrel, with decent ability to steal, even though speed nor SO rate rates out very good.

7. Contreras

Putting up good numbers as a batter, and an elite catcher. Signs of improvement esp. in ISO on a bounce back year last yr. Stat cast does not really back it up however last yr.

8. Bote

Good hard contact, exit Velo, and did well getting on base. Nice Exit Velo upside here. Can run.

J. Heyward, J. Kipnis? not much consistent production here but these guys can hit at times as veterans.

P1: Yu Darvish  Not quite an ace, first half bad, 2nd half good. Too many walks, high SO upside. ERA under 3 for 2nd half. Despite giving up lot of HR.’s Grounded at better rate then ever before. Was at his career K/9 rate for career at 11-11.5

Cutter (36.5%), Four Seamer (26.8%)

P2: Jose Quintana  L

5.5 innings per game. Rates out low in every STAT cast category. About 8 K/9 with potential to get back to upside of 9.5 from 2017

P3: Kyle Hendricks

One of least hardest throwers in league. Elite control. Look at him as value play vs. weaker LU’s. only 7.6 career K/9 47.5 GB for career.

P4: Jon Lester

Too old, cannot pitch long into games.

P5: Tyler Chatwood

almost a walk per inning. too many.

P6: Jharel Cotton may be given opportunity to take #5.

Bullpen is bad, need Kimbrel to close out like he used to. Attack this pen.

Continue reading “Cubs Roster: STAT Cast Batting Order Breakdown”

Brewers Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

1. L. Cain

Good hard contact but no ISO low Bapip last year but usually a Elite BA guy

2. C. Yelich

Top 1% in most batting cats can also steal. Amazing even the HR/FB rate was a bit low.

3. K. Hiura

50% hard contact. Top 8% in most stat casts. Impressive rookie with slug, exit Velo and top off speed hitter with .600 slug

4. J. Garcia R

Decent power and OPS improved as base stealer last year with 10. Consistently hitting 40% hard contact with a top 13 max exit Velo

5. J. Smoak S

consistent ISO career 190. Excels At BBs. Xwoba good

6. Ryan Braun

Consistent hitter that can still get you something in DFS for a good price.

7. E. Sogard

had a couple really good OBP yrs

8. O. Navarez

Nice upside but not much to back it up really.

Bench:  O. Arica, M. Pena, B. Holt, Jed Gyorko, Ben Gamel.

P1: Brandon Woodruff

Over 10 K/9, 5.5 IP per game. Nice pitch mix and 94th Percentile Velocity.

Rest of starting pitchers you can attack.

Don’t attack the BP ever.

Cincinatti Reds Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

The reds have not experienced the playoffs since they lost to the Pirates in the wild card round of 2013. New Manager David Bell, experienced having a better lineups last year improving their wins to 75 as the previous 3 years they only won 67 or 68 games, so their young home grown talent is developing into skills and bringing over a Free agent such as Mike Moustakas, bring a more playoff oriented approach to the leadership of team, even though this team had poor patience at the plate last season.

  1. Nick Senzel R – Took 95 ABs as a lefty overall what he did though was interesting is that As a lefty he had impressive stats with up to .900 OPS and slugged .526! Expect him to be an every day player moving foward.

14 Stolen Bases 6 of which was vs. Lefty…, #2 pick in 16′ The main thing he projects for is speed but he also had upside with power especially in the minors. Has not showed a whole lot of that yet in the Majors.

2. Joey Votto

Votto had a down year, at 37, he’ll be 37 by the time the season ends. He did maintain himself vs. Righties still bringing in a .361 OBP. His plate discipline is holding up as no changes there, but his power seems lost backed up simply by the drop in homers the last 2 years

3. Eugenio Suarez R

2nd in majors in HR’s last year while not providing steal upside

4 .Mike Moustaskas  L only 31 yrs old

Providing championship mentality, Mouse provides very consistent batting numbers. ISO always over .200 but no SB upside. Career yr in homers at 35

5. Nick Castellanos

Led league in doubles I believe last year. His X numbers have been very good the last few years, Does not provide steals. Consistently provides well struck balls and a very good Cash play option. SLG always should be well over .500 and BA around .290.

6. Arisides Aquino R

This is what I love about looking into these guys into their advanced numbers, minor league numbers if needed, and film. Tied MLB record with 7 or 8 homers in first 10g. His minor league numbers show nice power and speed potential, So even though his SO’s caught up with him shortly after the 10 games, he’s a high upside multi-RBI Hr hitter who also should provide steals in addition especially if he can get on base more and get better as He’s been around a bit a 25 yrs old. late bloomer.

7. Freddy Galvis  S

Galvis is too inconsistent and streaky even though he had career in HR’s but his Woba is almost worst in the league. not much in steals.

  1. Jesse Winker  L

Winker is only good vs. righties so far. He can move up in order at #2 but with these new arrivals that won’t be much. no steal upside Hits ball hard vs. fast ball. SLG is well over .500 but only vs. Righties for the platoon, BA overall is about .280 showing maturity at the plate. 3 yrs.

9. Tucker Barnhart R

Barnhart sparingly shows power getting 11 HR’s in part time role. Splits time with Casali who is same age, serving as defensive stoppers, but both are bad in overall batting stats.

Interesting bench with IF: Kyle Farmer

VanMeter: in 228 AB’s hit 8 HR, with .735 OPS, and Scott Schebler, who had a 30 HR season in 17′, but low BA, perpaps why he’s benched, and finally Phillip Ervin who is a speed demon.

Overall in hitting they were bottom 10 in league in all batting cats such as BA, SLG and OBP, however 14th in HR’s, so those numbers will go up.

SP1:Luis Castillo R 6 IPG

Castillo is elite at not allowing SLG nor exit velocity. He can allow balls up in the air either with GB rate of 55%. 1.22 HR/9 which he has improved on thru the few yrs of play. High SO upside used him a lot GPP. relies on 4 pitches, FB, slider, sinker, changeup. CU is his best pitch maxes out usually about 96mph.

SP2 Sonny Gray R 5.5 innings

10.5 k/9 compared to 8.5 prior 2 yrs. 53% GB P which is very high for his career. And well under 1 HR/9 at just .87. Best pitches are slider and curve. Gets down in the lower 80’s with those but can throw the 4 Seam at 94mph. His breaking ball can lock guys up including lefties so he has a really nice hook on those pitches.

Trevor Bauer R goes over 6 innings on a normal basis. 10-11 k/9.

1.06 HR/9 allowed. His best quality if the fastball with a high spin rate on it. However thats the pitch he gets blown up on the most. He took to many risks so if he stays with and develops his changeup or re-develops his changeup back to where it was in 18′, he can move forward again instead of backward or the same as 19′ His slider is really good as well but not used enough, only 18% of time. Too many 4 seamers.

4. Miley L

Keeps the ball down, as he give you maybe 5 innings making it difficult to get a quality start or win. Dont’ see him doing better with the Reds. 1.2-4 HR/9 allowed.

5. Anthony Deschfani

Most effective P is the Curve showing a lot of improvement over last yr, however this is the #1 starting pitcher we can attack, as he allows 1.5 HR/9 and his 4 seamer and sinker up to 95mph. They are expecting him to improve their 5 man rotation as he has 4 different pitches he uses.

BP:

Closer Raisel returns as closer hitting on 34 saves last yr.

Also Michael Lorenzen the top setup man can play all OF positions, so great althlete there.

Overall pitching: 8th in ERA, 7th in saves, and 4th in opponents BA.

Ranked 12 in fielding, 22 in double plays.

 

 

SD Padres STATcast overview

1. Fernando Tatis

.410 Bapip doubt that will stay that high, as well as his 32% fB rate, indicating inflating numbers Hit for power and ran with real speed. .047 negative expected Woba differential. Doesn’t sound like much but even though all the scouts have said this guy is real and everybody loves him as a fielder as well, we could expect a regression in a sophmore campaign. You never want to rely on one year. Going pretty high in drafts. Showed off his max exit Velocity barrel rate at 21 yrs old. Son of another player.

2. Eric Hosmer  L

Below avg hitter who has not hit .800 OPS in a few yrs. Maybe their holding onto that 2017 .882 OPS 498 SLG %?? Can hit it very hard at 46% contact and with a line drive rate of 22% probably up in the order like this, sometime you just need a veteran guy to bring in some runs for cash. Terrible vs. Lefties but should start out with full playing time based on the contract.

3. Mannt Machado

Pretty even split of GB to FB rate. His BAPIP was only .274 for his first full season away from camden yards. I expect these numbers to bounce back somewhat to what he did in Balt. Remember he was top 92 percentile in all batting categories even in a year of partial run at Camden during the trade.    Struggled in ST play going 2 for 23, however his 300 mil contract secures his spot at third base.

4. Will Myers

Big Will Myers profiles similar to Hosmer, can hit line drives, has some power, wit 34% rate, thats a killer. But can also steal bases as a savvy veteran which Hosmer did not do much of. Not sure if he’ll be at this cleanup spot.      Was HOT in ST going 9 for 22 with 3 HR, 5 RBI’s working his way to everyday at bats.

5. Tommy Pham

We are looking to use Pham for getting on base and OBP vs. Righties. The huge payoff bonus is that if Pham gets back to one of his previous seasons we’re looking at approaching a 50% along with steals of 20-25 per season, he could be a valuable DFS option if the price is right.   Didn’t do much in ST, but everything suggests he’ll be healthy and ready to go despite soreness in his side. “Participated in a sand-lot style baseball game organized by Trevor Bauer. Interesting..

6. jurickson Profar

Afte losing Renfroe and Manuel Margot to a trade, Pham and Profar will seem to work themselves nicely into the lineup at positions of need. Nice production even though batting way down in the A’s order, can steal a base, and Very good avg exit velocity showing consistent surprisinlgy signs of power to add to his GB and line drive rate, even though having a lower BA and OBP. Sneaky coming in perhaps right behind Pham in LU.

7. F. Mejia

With a lot of times in the indians farm system, his first full staring season up from a couple yrs in AAA showed him struggling as a catcher. Didn’t show much hitting at all. Done nothing in ST Scouts say he can hit but has shown nothing at any Major league level yet.

8. Austin Hedges is more interesting for occasional power as they will split time.

9. Trent Grisham.

Hit 6 HR”s in 156 AB’s nice ST play.

P1

Chris Paddock   R

His Actual ERA was backed up nicely by his XERA of right about the same, 3.3 K% of 27% is good, and ralies on 3 pitches. Mostly 4 seamer at 60% and Changeup at 28% and a little curve ball. Very adequete at the 2 main pitches and not bad at the curve either staying under .300 Woba. Need to be more Well rounded and develop into an ace for this team. Has almost 10 k/9’s

P2

Garrett Richards  R

Last couple shortened injury seasons he threw over 10 K/9, but that is not real, as his career shows he’s at 7.8-8.8. He does have up to a 96 mph fastball as his specialty, and can get hit hard on this pitch with hard contact over 40% and exit velocity allowed with some of the worst in league so this is an easy spot to attack rather then use him.

P3

Zack Davies

Only 6.4 K/9 through his career, however a good GB pitcher, grades out bottome 5% in league in SO’s.

4P

DiNelson Lamet

Actually has a 4 pitch slection. 11.7 K/9!! Really good DFS option at a value price for sure. To 7% of league at 33.5 SO%

5P

Joey Lucchasi

Had a good rookie yr at 10 K/9 and then fell off last year at only 8.7 so his Sinker hits up to just about 90 mph topping out. Most effective pitch is the changup using that less then the Sinker 51 compared to 35% so perhaps that will go up in usage.

Colorado Rockies Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. David Dahl

Dosen’t do anything spectacular as he’s been a good prospect for some years battling injuries in his first full season and part of the previous season he’s put up very good ISO numbers, backed by Coors field.

2. Charlie Blackmon

Improved his Hard contact last yr along with everyone else in the league as he’s right on par with his career production I would’t expect him to slow down yet, showing nice barrel power.

3. Nolan Aernado

Great homerun distance last year as He always performs better in Woba then in xWOBA. I don’t expect any changes with this flyball productive hitter.

4. Trevor Story

All his batting numbers stayed with the previous season’s performance along with speed added to the real power of exit velocity of 91 mph and nice distance staying at high ISO.

5. Ryan McMahon

Focusing on K% for young guys, his is high however, his hard contact and exit velocity make him look elite at his 200 ISO. Not sure if he’ll be worthy yet of his spot in the order.

6. Ian Desmond

Showing to be a ground ball hitter he has maintained his 20 HR seasons through a lot of streakiness. This entails a High or low enough BAPIP to be able to take advantage at times of the Velo, and hard contact as a veteran.

7. Daniel Murhpy

As a top batting average and SO guy throughout his career, he dropped off it seems due to age. He may have to make way for younger talent.

8. Tony Wolters

A ground ball hitter only who is bottom of the league in all stats. Only used for defense and should get pinched by guys like Garret Hampson, Raimel Tapia, and Brendon Rogers whenver ready to step up.

1. SP

German Marqquez

Happy with his pitch mix getting Ks in ST

FB curve slider sinker

best ball are curve slider allowing sun 200 xWoba has 95mph fastball  6.26 At home ERA compared to 3.67 on rd

2. SP

Jon Gray

6’4” was a #3 overall pick

FB 50% slider 96 mph

best pitch is slider and curve at only 11%

3. SP

sentazela

In addition to a new curveball, a renewed changeup and good ol’ self-confidence — which showed again this Spring Training with his two scoreless innings in the Rockies’ 7-4 loss to the Rangers on Wednesday — Senzatela lost 15 pounds during the offseason.

But memories of those empanadas, and a reflexive habit of grabbing candy whenever it’s laying around, will have to be tamped down once the season begins. Senzatela is a rare player who gains weight during the lengthy season. He, his wife Vanessa and young son Tiago are all partners in helping him keep the weight off, which may help him control the ERA.

fastball 62% slider curve   Best pitch is curve, needs lot of work as has poor k% woba batting avg and hard contact allowed about a 94mph fastball

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona D-Backs Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. Starling Marte

It appears perhaps the D-Backs feel they can sustain power out of Marte, or just use his as a lead-off hitter. This is not something you can rely on, but steals plenty of bases.

2. Ketal Marte

The question here is to what extent is the power real. There is data to back it up much more then compared to Starling. To what degree he sustains I suspect, he’s made improvements but not as good as his wOBA actually shows. Expect some kind of decline.

3. Eduardo Escobar

With high BAPIP and low Fly ball rate for his career this is not something you usually see. Seems like he rode the fly ball wave of this team. Maybe this how Arizona humidor results are going forward??

4. Christian Walker

His improvement showed in every phase of the game. Has massive hard contact barrel and exit velocity.

5. David Peralta

Does not excel in any particular area. His exit velocity is fine and had one outlier 30 home run season. Don’t chase it in DFS.

6. Kole Calhoun

Has a good xWOBA at .333 which is better compared to OPS. Can get barrels leading to a good amount of homers but not likely matching 33.

7. Nick Ahmed

He’s not very far off from what he can potentially do as a serviceable SS that can play up in the order when needed providing DFS value.

8. Carson Kelly

When this lineup is healthy it may be more refined then last season, which would prove myself and many others wrong. As basically a rookie, thats been around for a long time, show good control taking walks and puts up .337 xWOBA, good for a rookie for sure with 18 HR’s.

P1

Robbie Ray

Good SO pitcher who does gave up decent exit velocity last yr after allowing a lot of velo and hard contact in his previous 2 seasons . 70% of his balls are 4-seamer and slider. These are also his best 2 pitches.

Ray plans to pitch with an over-the-top motion out of the windup this season — a Max Scherzer, Jack Flaherty-esque movement that he hopes will help him create better timing and a more direct finish to the plate. The genesis of the change began in part with a recent consultation with former D-backs ace Zack Greinke.

Greinke has many moving parts in his mechanics, which are widely recognized as among the game’s most polished. Ray isn’t attempting to mirror Greinke, who delivers from his chest and not over his head, but instead emulate him.

P2

Madison Bumgarner

Very good fastball spin however very bad exit velo and hard contact allowed. Bumgarner has never been the same since his motorcycle accident 3 years ago but is only 30 years old. Even though sparingly used his best pitch is the curve allowing only .250 xwoba only 18% last yr expect that to change.

The D-backs had a poor BP and released their closer Greg Holland after an implosion, and replaced him with a successful Archie Bradley going 18 of 19 in saves! However his MPH reduced from 97-100 to 93-94 range

P3.

Merril Kelly

Had a nice showing in ST with a FB right on the corner, and had a couple of these high curving pitches where batter SO swinging under the ball. This may have been his breaking ball as he’s only allowing sub .250 Woba on this pitch. 25 yr old control pitcher.

 

 

 

Seattle Mariners Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. Shed Long

If he could get his SO numbers down towards where he was in the minors, that would be good for this progress as his ISO and Steal potential are fine, as he would get on base more.

2. JP Crawford

With bottom of the barrel X numbers he would have to hope that his OBP% is real and his base steal potential increases to stay here. They could have used a free agent here if they had money or trade for a body.

3. Mitch Haniger

Haniger become more of a fly ball hitter sacrificing his overall numbers with low BAPIP for higher ISO. High upside is good but they did not translate into enough SLG or HR’s without even looking at the SC numbers. Launch angle increased but not Exit Velo, as the #’s reverted back to rookie.

4. Kyle Seager

An interesting Fly ball hitter with high upside for DFS. His Hard Contact has maintained over 2 years and his Xwoba is almost .350. He appears to lack the physical power as he’s really a sub .200 ISO hitter for his career.

5. Tom Murphy

Basically a rookie last year showing good power with with HR/FB and very good hard contact % as he should be a high upside volatile play in DFS. Very high SO rate to go along with it.

6. Daniel Vogelbach

Is at about .440 XSLG which is what he did in the real SLG. His raw power proved true to his style of play with a K% that was not bad so that he was able to maintain a 98th percentile BB%. Very impressive.

7. Kyle Lewis

An impressive showing of real slugging numbers in a small sample size rookie yr after overcoming injury as an 11th overall pick in 16′. Didn’t hit enough homers at all levels of minor league play. Lots of SO’s.

8. Mallex Smith

I’s rather put Smith here then anyone else unproven at this point just for his high steal upside. Feels like he’s been in the league a long time, as his OBP should bounce back better this year, based on previous seasons.