SF Giants Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. Mike Yastrzemski

An interesting late blooming prospect that has impressive rookie xWOBA, SLG, and pure power. Could be best hitter on the team.

2. Buster Posey

His SO% went up last year as he provides no value in DFS.

3. Brandon Belt

I was surprised he had a full season of healthy plate appearances and put up this dissapointing season as the prior years he did better in X stats. Has maintained his good walk numbers getting on base.

4. Evan Longoria

Lost his power in recent years, then had a bit of a resuregence in 2019 as he’s improved his xWOBA numbers significantly to .352. SLGing is also well along which is why is getting back up to higher ISO.

5. Alex Dickerson

When a guy who has not played much has high hard contact and strikes out below 20% you may have something if he can keep healthy.

6. Brandon Crawford

Does not exceed anywhere. The savvy veteran is a decent ground ball hitter and fielder. Not much for DFS.

7. Mauricio Dubon

Seemed like he would be a good raw power and speed combo, but not been around too long. We’ll see what he does with an opportunity.

8. Billy Hamilton

Still a speed sprinter, which shows on his stat cast rankings as #20

Arizona D-Backs Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. Starling Marte

It appears perhaps the D-Backs feel they can sustain power out of Marte, or just use his as a lead-off hitter. This is not something you can rely on, but steals plenty of bases.

2. Ketal Marte

The question here is to what extent is the power real. There is data to back it up much more then compared to Starling. To what degree he sustains I suspect, he’s made improvements but not as good as his wOBA actually shows. Expect some kind of decline.

3. Eduardo Escobar

With high BAPIP and low Fly ball rate for his career this is not something you usually see. Seems like he rode the fly ball wave of this team. Maybe this how Arizona humidor results are going forward??

4. Christian Walker

His improvement showed in every phase of the game. Has massive hard contact barrel and exit velocity.

5. David Peralta

Does not excel in any particular area. His exit velocity is fine and had one outlier 30 home run season. Don’t chase it in DFS.

6. Kole Calhoun

Has a good xWOBA at .333 which is better compared to OPS. Can get barrels leading to a good amount of homers but not likely matching 33.

7. Nick Ahmed

He’s not very far off from what he can potentially do as a serviceable SS that can play up in the order when needed providing DFS value.

8. Carson Kelly

When this lineup is healthy it may be more refined then last season, which would prove myself and many others wrong. As basically a rookie, thats been around for a long time, show good control taking walks and puts up .337 xWOBA, good for a rookie for sure with 18 HR’s.

P1

Robbie Ray

Good SO pitcher who does gave up decent exit velocity last yr after allowing a lot of velo and hard contact in his previous 2 seasons . 70% of his balls are 4-seamer and slider. These are also his best 2 pitches.

Ray plans to pitch with an over-the-top motion out of the windup this season — a Max Scherzer, Jack Flaherty-esque movement that he hopes will help him create better timing and a more direct finish to the plate. The genesis of the change began in part with a recent consultation with former D-backs ace Zack Greinke.

Greinke has many moving parts in his mechanics, which are widely recognized as among the game’s most polished. Ray isn’t attempting to mirror Greinke, who delivers from his chest and not over his head, but instead emulate him.

P2

Madison Bumgarner

Very good fastball spin however very bad exit velo and hard contact allowed. Bumgarner has never been the same since his motorcycle accident 3 years ago but is only 30 years old. Even though sparingly used his best pitch is the curve allowing only .250 xwoba only 18% last yr expect that to change.

The D-backs had a poor BP and released their closer Greg Holland after an implosion, and replaced him with a successful Archie Bradley going 18 of 19 in saves! However his MPH reduced from 97-100 to 93-94 range

P3.

Merril Kelly

Had a nice showing in ST with a FB right on the corner, and had a couple of these high curving pitches where batter SO swinging under the ball. This may have been his breaking ball as he’s only allowing sub .250 Woba on this pitch. 25 yr old control pitcher.

 

 

 

WSH Nationals Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. Adam Eaton

I like his numbers as they are reverting back to 15, 16, and 17′ season. Has speed and can get on base. Can do it vs. Lefties as well even though he is a lefty the numbers don’t change. Base stealing better vs. R’s of course. Gets on base .360+ runner and fielder.

2. Trea Turner

Had his best hitting season since 16′, as his caliber of player stealing bases as a righty in this lineup is always playable in DFS at the right price. Spring speed maybe best in the league with power for a small lengthy guy at 6’2″. Has green light to steal 3rd creating 10 FP easily. The mindset of possibly in 3 hole instead, shaking this LU up.

3. Juan Soto

Elite at getting on base, SLG, ISO, and nice speed. Can walk with the best of them already, as he should get even better. He is in range with the best hitters in game with 51 barrels. 20% SO rage is fine.

4. Victor Robles

Got a full season in as a bit more of a ground ball hitter, displaying good speed and base stealing skills. He might be able to improve his power this year. If not he’ll hope to get on base and walk better. Great upside. 23 years old. Great Power/speed potential.

Swing Option: Eric Thams, looking to hit 5th. Trying to get him in every day.

Astubrel Cabrera. Depding on the split can also use him in DFS. Trying to get the 5th 6th spots in LU here.

Also having Starline Castro as an option. Decent hitter.

5. Howie Kendrick

The savvy veteran jumped up his ISO with the same Bapip. I couldn’t believe his STAT Cast numbers jumping off the screen in X SLG, Xwoba, Hard contact, and SO% along with Velocity. There is no way to go but down.

6. Carter Kieboom  R

Looks like they think he can be a Trau Turner some day, as he would have to develop a lot more power to go along with his potential base steals. Was not a high draft pick but a first rounder several years ago. Not much opportunity. Was a top 10 prospect.

7. A mix of Wilmer Difo, Kurt Suzuki, and Michael Taylor look to try to get on base, and/or pop up a HR every now and then.

P1: Max Scherzer, lowest numbers of recent career. Missed a few starts, needs to stay healthy. perrenial Cy young Ace. Hitting upside. still on top of his game.

P2: Stephen Strausberg

Healthy world series MVP season. Top 12 Ace in league. injuries have plagued him.

P3: dok

got

Seattle Mariners Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. Shed Long

If he could get his SO numbers down towards where he was in the minors, that would be good for this progress as his ISO and Steal potential are fine, as he would get on base more.

2. JP Crawford

With bottom of the barrel X numbers he would have to hope that his OBP% is real and his base steal potential increases to stay here. They could have used a free agent here if they had money or trade for a body.

3. Mitch Haniger

Haniger become more of a fly ball hitter sacrificing his overall numbers with low BAPIP for higher ISO. High upside is good but they did not translate into enough SLG or HR’s without even looking at the SC numbers. Launch angle increased but not Exit Velo, as the #’s reverted back to rookie.

4. Kyle Seager

An interesting Fly ball hitter with high upside for DFS. His Hard Contact has maintained over 2 years and his Xwoba is almost .350. He appears to lack the physical power as he’s really a sub .200 ISO hitter for his career.

5. Tom Murphy

Basically a rookie last year showing good power with with HR/FB and very good hard contact % as he should be a high upside volatile play in DFS. Very high SO rate to go along with it.

6. Daniel Vogelbach

Is at about .440 XSLG which is what he did in the real SLG. His raw power proved true to his style of play with a K% that was not bad so that he was able to maintain a 98th percentile BB%. Very impressive.

7. Kyle Lewis

An impressive showing of real slugging numbers in a small sample size rookie yr after overcoming injury as an 11th overall pick in 16′. Didn’t hit enough homers at all levels of minor league play. Lots of SO’s.

8. Mallex Smith

I’s rather put Smith here then anyone else unproven at this point just for his high steal upside. Feels like he’s been in the league a long time, as his OBP should bounce back better this year, based on previous seasons.

 

Texas Rangers Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. Shin-Soo Choo

I was a bit surprised he kicked it into the top 5% of hard hitters in the league, as his consistency is efficient for his team and can probably sustain top exit velocity, maybe even stolen base at this age.

2. Elvis Andrus

A SB specialist ground ball hitter can do nicely in this #2 spot to set up this offense for the next park and batters here.

3. Danny Santana

With off the chart improvement from opportunity met last yr. The power hitting and speed numbers make for very nice DFS play.

4. Joey Gallo

What we hope for is a consistent power hitter with a crushing swing that he has, what we may get is a drop off as he had high BAPIP and HR/FB compared to most years. All of his significant X numbers improved except Exit velocity.

5. Willie Calhoun

I was interested to see how his raw power number specifically ISO held up in the X Stat Cast categories and what I found was that he is more of a plane discipline guy, as he may not that kind of consistent power in the majors.

6. Nick Solak

Sustained really high BAPIP throughout the minors and showed flashes of power. Not a .884 OPS guy, more like .776.

7. Rougned Odor

It felt like a down year for for Odor but he put up career numbers. Out of all the batters in this order, he may have the most upside. Low downside.

 

 

 

LA Angels Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. David Fletcher

Improved to be a decent base stealer, on base, and batting average guy. No power.

2. Mike Trout

Trout is the best hitter in baseball. Had career high in HR’s even with the lowest BAPIP in his career. His SLG and HR/FB rate are incredible numbers for any major leaguer in history. Don’t forget about the sprint speed

3. Shohei Ohtani

His ISO dropped off quite a bit despite having more plate appearances then his rookie year, which is a bit concerning. Throw him into the pitching mix and not sure if it will help or hurt him? Has the nice hard contact and excellent exit velocity for what we want/need.

4. Anthony Rendon

Rendon is a great overall hitter who improved his SLG and ISO last year trying out for MVP. Has X numbers to back everything up and really good hard contact. He can get you some barrels too.

5. His BAPIP dropped off a lot last year only. This was due to injury as his numbers look to bounce back to form including elite Xwoba, hard contact, and barrels.

6. Albert Pujols

Pujols is negatively impacted by the Haitus so this season will not go well for him from a financial standpoint. If the angels are tolerating a moving up in the history of hitters books, whey will have to be satisfied with his leadership and subpar numbers to his standards and average X numbers.

7. Brian Goodwin

G0odwin should rely more on the best part of his game, his sprint speed. I would only use him vs. Lefties for a sneaky DFS stack. His SLG is fine there.

8. Andrelton Simmons

Rounding it out here, seems like they have had the same lineup for few years as we could see Simmons do well when up in the lineup. Rendon was a nice upgrade over Calhoun in the batting order. His 99th percentile SO% makes him unique for a DFS play.

P1: J. Teheran L 9th yr

consistent for DFS Cash, maybe 5.5 innings been getting over 8 K/9. Does not have good velocity as he relies on his spin on his sinker and slider .

P2: Andrew Heaney L 6th yr

5 innings per game setting up for guys like Hansel Robles and Ty Buttrey who are good fast ball pitchers. He did have 11 K/9 last yr but his normal career numbers are more like 9 per so there’s upside. More of a FB pitcher as he gives up 1.5 hr/9 easily.

P3: Dylan Bundy R

again these pitchers will not go long into games gives u decent 9 K/9 but lots of HRs useful to attack. Much better at home vs lefties and righties. I would love to attack him with some lefties regardless of where he plays as his underlying stats really don’t show but this is a secret play that most people really don’t know about.

P4: Matt Andries R good change up improved on 4 seamer last yr after some horrid previous yrs  and Pat Sandoval; 11th round pick as L who has good fastball with decent command. Been in farm long time with Astros but never got to high A ball then kind of forced up based on need from High A ball with angels.

 

 

 

 

Fanduel SIM Sports MLB for 4/2/20 Number Fire

When looking at this Fanduel SIM Sports MLB for today, the first of its kind its being simulated by numberfire daily fantasy projections. Here’s where it explains the rules during the COVID 19 Hiatis.

Fanduel SIM sports MLB

What i’ll do is provide the basic outliers for what teams to stack and what pitchers to use today based on this information.

Fanduel SIM Sports MLB Projections for GPP

Pitchers to attack:

  1. Chase Anderson TOR:Does not give up hard contact, high velo.

.671 vs. Lefty OPS

.815 vs. Righty OPS

XERA 4.57 in 2019 3.91 SIERA

2. J. Sheffield SEA: Added a 2 seam fastball to his arsenal, as he’s a fastball P.

.812 vs Lefty Did not get many innings at all vs. Lefty in majors

.933 vs Righty

XERA 4.57 in 2019, SIERA 4.77

3. Martin Perez BOS:

.640 vs Lefty

.819 vs Righty

XERA 4.05 in 2019 but 5.76 in 2018, 5.01 SIERA in 2019

A groundball P who does not allow hard contact, but does not get K’s

4. John Means: Balt:

.577 vs Lefty

.756 vs Righty

XERA 4.08 in 2019 SIERA 5.02

Does not allow hard contact, does not get K’s, allows XSLG

5. Joe Musgrove: PIT

.789 vs Lefty

.702 vs Righty

XERA 4.08 in 2019 4.31 SIERA

Fastball spin but no Velo

6. Adrian Houser: MIL

.786 vs Lefty

.648 vs Righty

XERA 3.43 in 2019 3.91 SIERA

Did not allow Xwoba or XSLG

Pitchers to use:

Strasburg WSH: High Ground ball pitcher at 51%. 30% SO in 2019. His weakness may be exit velocity as he gave up a significantly higher HR/FB rate last year compared to his career. X numbers are all at least top 7% of league.

Bieber CLE: 3.36 SIERA a .10 improvement over 2018. Gives up too many HR”s due to exit velo and hard contact. His HR/FB rate was interestingly equal to Strasberg. Bieber has 90th Percentile K potential.

Bauer CIN: The question is will N.F. projections allow him  to get more towards his 2018 form when he has a lower 2 ERA (lower 3 XFIP) and a +11K/9 SO rate? He won’t be able to use his tricks to get back to the 90th percentile in this simulation game.

M. Boyd:

Z.Wheeler

 

 

 

Oakland A’s Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. Matt Olson

I don’t think this is a good spot for him as it may change his number of runs as he had a lot more RBI’s last year then runs. His pure X power numbers are great in the top 95th percentile and top 20 exit velocity.

2. Franlkin Barreto

May not be a regular in this spot unless he can duplicate what he did in the minors, hitting .189 ISO and getting stolen bases upside.

3. Matt Chapman

Average exit velocity and Barrel % is higher even then Olson’s. You have to wonder whether the new ballpark will improve their numbers as the A’s have given the green light to hitting homers more then any team.

4. Khris Davis

Although being a low BAPIP guy we expected him to hit more HR’s last year. If he could get quickly back to his usual form from previous hears, he’s easily a top 10% stat cast guy.

5. Sean Murphy

Has incredible small sample size isolated power or ISO. They MAY have figured something out with the 25 yr old to improve his power hitting as a catcher who did the same in AAA.

6. Ramon Laureano

Another case of if his AAA numbers can turn into real Stat cast numbers, we’ll have ourselves a pure power player. ISO of .233 SLG .521

7. Mark Canha

An even better ISO here posted .244 as he’s in a sweet spot in the order great for DFS value. Nice Xwoba and BB’s as a bonus onto his HR’s. Had 26.

8. Stephen Piscoty

Projected to bounce back with a higher OBP then he did based on numbers prior to last yr. Not outstanding in any particular category, and worth 20 HRs. you don’t get many SB’s out of this lineup.

9. Marcus Semien

47 barrels in 2019 as I was anxious to see if his season could have been real. This is not likely as an obvious outlier to all of his previous years. He was about where his career BAPIP is last year, in 2016 he did have similar HR/FB

P1: Mike Fiers:  R 34 yrs

Strong stuff. can pitch a shoutout as his defensive fielding backs him up well. No one to replace J. Profar in the feild. Can allow fly balls but keeps the ball in the park. 5.5-6 IP. Opening day starter last yr.

XFIP was high at 5.2 last yr. compared to a 3.9 ERA. Should drop back down to his usual 4.5 XFIP. XERA of 5 HR/9 1.4. 15-4 record. 39% hard contact last 2 yrs. compared to carrer of 34%.   ST: was throwing more of his offspeed stuff effectively, feeling good and of course competing for opening day with Frankie Montas. Was ready to get 90 pitches in on his next outing, dissapointingly we didn’t see that happen due to suspenion of play.

P2: Frankie Montas R 27 yrs

Hard throwing potential ace who can keep ERA down as he did in spring. Unfortunately with most P’s he did not get fully stretched out but should have a chance to do so when MLB ramps back up. Got you 6 innings per outing. Nice ground ball rate keeping it down while elevating his SO’s to almost 10 K/9 so showing nice improvement over 2018. XFIP was only 4.1 even though missing several games with injury. Used a quick pitch in ST, which he did during 2017 unsuccesfully.

Good FB, up to 98, mostly uses the 4 seamer and sinker nice speed on the 2 seamer as well, allows an elite level very low barrel rate of 3%. Has no glaring weakness. Expect well under 1 HR/9 maybe even just .7, very good.

P3: Sean Manaea  L

Improved by 3 K/9 to 9 K/9 in his 4th season at 28 yr old. Good Ground ball rate and HR/9 at about 1.1. XFIP was about 4 and ERA kept to 1.2 but could only get 5 games started due to injury, 4-0. Fast ball not good never seeing him towards the upper 90’s. however does not walk batters. showing nice control on changeup and slider. should use more. Worked with Randy Johnson to improve on the slider, getting SO’s with the refined pitch.

P4: Jesus Luzardo L 22 yrs

Needs to improve his slider and command in 6 games pitched last year. Produced a 1.08 ERA and .6 WHIP across 3 cactus league starts. performed like an Ace. Dominated in a win over mariners with 8 SO’s over 3 innings. Consistenty in the 96-97 MPH so velcity is very good which we want to always try and note. His 5+ pitches should anchor the rotation if he stays healthy for the next decade. High end prospect.

P5: Chris Bassett R 31 yrs.

10-5 record, decent at SO’s and HR/9. keeping on the ground. XFIP of 4.6 which is stabalized with 3.8 ERA for his career. 4 seamer is good at 94. Does not show his weaknesses much as he uses mainly sinker for his strengths and hard contact is fine at 37%.

P6: AJ Puk L 24 yrs

Pitched in 10 games last yr showing high GB rate of 48%. Expect maybe 10.3 K/9!. a number 2 prospect for the A’s last yr after Luzardo. Coming back from Tommy John, he stretched himself out throwing 120 f.t Had a shoulder flare up, but has time to get right for start of season. Fast ball thrower at 97 MPM! i’m sure he can get it to 98.

 

Houston Astros Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. George Springer

I was surprised to see Springer had 39, a carer high in HR’s last year after missing a bunch of games, was not able to play him all that often in DFS. His XOPS is right on with his actual OPS, making him solid play again. Top 4%.

2. Jose Altuve

Career high in HR, but low in SB. Has he become a power hitter at 29 years old? Not likely as his numbers will come back down, decreasing his value

drastically if not increasing his Woba and stolen bases.

3. Michael Brantley

Older then I thought he was, he remains consistent, so try to use him when you can at the right price as a DFS option at the heart of this lineup.

4. Alex Bregman

With career highs in HR’s, Slugging, and ISO, he’s worthy of another home run derby contest if they have one at all. Add to that great plate discipline and Woba, this is a unique elite play with not as great statcast rankings.

5. Carlos Carrea

Had a 474ft. HR. This slugging and raw power are on point. He can have a down year.

6. Yordan Alvarez

Ranks in the top 98th Percentile in every important Stat cast category except for hard hit contact and exit velocity where he ranked in the top 95th percentile. He is not being considered among the elite yet.

7. Yuli Gurriel

Seems strange to that to round out the regular starters, they are all irregular with their numbers compared to their BAPIP, showing lots of HR power without enough Stat cast data to back up this kind of production.

8. Josh Reddick

I would rather have been wrighting up Jake Marisnick but he was traded. Reddick has higher upside then many players in the league as well. Has a low SO rate but not enough otherwise.

Detroit Tigers Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

  1. JaCoby Jones

Good HR/FB rate for a ground ball leadoff hitter making this an interesting new bunch of Tigers. Surprisingly very good exit velocity and decent runner.

2. Niko Goodrum

Goodrum did nicely at the cleanup towards the beginning of the year of 2019 as he can get on base and steal a bag as well. Top 50 in speed ranking.

3. Miquel Cabrera

Good Hard hit contact and decent exit velocity. Can still hit a barrel every once in a while. One of the few to go only GPP on in DFS. Must lose weight! he knows it, so we’ll see.

4. CJ Cron

Impressive hard contact, exit velocity, and barrels, for a guy who’s been around for a few years and I believe has not hit stride as he’s hit value the last 2 years of play in DFS.

5. Christian Stewart

I believe Stewart can get his numbers up towards his minor league performance, as he had a grand slam doing well early on in 2019 but did not provide as much value down the stretch. This improved lineup will help.

6. Jonathan Schoop

As a groundball hitter his numbers with Min. jumped up for a number of reason, but at this spot in the lineup hard to believe it could go either way as a volatile play in DFS.

7. Jeimer Candelario

With bottomed out bottom of the barrel numbers there is some upside for the future as

8. Austin Romine

I know he’s a higher profile signee from the Yankees but it concerns me that his power is not diplayed more as he had only one decent ISO or pure pwr yr.

P1: Matt Boyd 29 yr old L

5.7 IPG, abotu 4.5 ERA, as they rank 28th last yr as a team with 5.24. 11.5 K/9 showing massive SO improvement last yr. Fastball slider specialist, does not use much curve, and is working on weight training to get stronger to be able to get better down the stretch.

P2: Spencer Turnbull: 27 yr old R

5.8 IPG, Good fastball and slider., is a so so matchup for lefties or righties batting against him.

P3: Jordan Zimmerman 33 yr old R

Only 4.8 IP per game. 1-13 record. not much K/9. Attack with Lefties at 2 homers/9!!  He’s a placeholder for young guns stepping in.

P4: Daniel Norris 27 yr old L not a traditional starter, as he was limited to 3 innings per game in his last few outing, they have plans to use him a bit more with shortened season, resulting in more time for BP.

5 IPG, had a nice 2018 with over 10 K/9, so has upside in using him. 20 HR’s given up to Righties. Can attack with all hitters.

Prospects:

RHP: Casey Mize:  Righty.

#1 overall pick in 2018, 3+ pitches and outstanding command. Was limited by his shoulder in his minor league results.

RHP: Matt Manning: cut his walk rate and hits per inning in 2019 going 11-5 with a 2.56 ERA in AA as a 21 yr old. Is up towards the level of Mize as a younger prospect.

OF: Riley Greene: widely considered the best pure hitter in the 2019 draft at 6’3″ 200 lbs. hitting .271 with 5 steals, and 29 HR’s across 3 levels of the minors being drafted 5th overall out of a florida high school.

FINAL thoughts. 1-18 vs. Cleveland.