Whether your taking gpp shots or cash shots in your DFS fantasy football strategies for this weekend, here the main slate breakdown as far as safe plays goes. Will also give some tips on some risks that I would take in tournaments.
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I will break this down by most important position to take first. Unconventionally I choose to pick my defense first and then work my skill position lines around the defenses that I think will have success tomorrow.
Here’s some game theory pointers in my Video.
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Rams; At decent ownership expected around %14 the Rams are a safe bet for a 0 non-negative score that you can get from other defenses. Even if the efficiency of GB can lower their score their Defensive to offensive line matchup is most likely to find a way to wreak havoc.
While the Bills are the highest owned defense, the Ravens look to prove then can force turnovers from the young Allen as they pressured and intercepted one of the most efficient QB’s last week.
Best Bets at skilled positions:
Lamar Jackson. I am very inclined to take advantage of the best matchup. To think Jackson is the 7th highest QB on this DK slate is ludicrous. He can do it best of all with his legs in the best MU for his strength. I’ll take the 2nd highest salaried for this kind of potential production. If someone knows someone I don’t about this Bills rush D, like they would actually stop this guy then please respond and warn me right away! There is nothing that would prove the Bills can do so for me.
Alvin Kamara fits the bill for the RB most likely to succeed. I’ve heard people taking Devon Singletary as their best value back. That sounds gross to me vs. this Ravens defense that is not getting the respect they now deserve. Also Kareem Hunt is almost full proof game script with the extra juicy revenge narrative at low ownership for the slate. JK Dobbins is a guy you can take easily in GPP’s for low ownership as well.
I am by no means a Ravens fan. Let’s make that clear I am a Browns fan. Both teams actually have good options at QB and I’ll tell you why. Both running or 2 read type quarterbacks don’t give themselves a lot of options when it comes to receivers unlike Brady or Bress who will throw the ball to literally anyone who’s open. I want guys like Jackson for cash and Mayfield for GPP, (Allen could fit into this category but he’s the 2nd highest owned QB). I would say you can plug in M. Brown and M. Andrews both stacked with Jackson here but it depends on your build type whether you lean cash or chalky type or low owned gpp type. You have your highest owned options Steph Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Michael Thomas also good in their own respect.
I mentioned Andrews as a good pick if you can fit him in. I don’t normally go high price at TE as a practice. There are a few good matchups to go with in terms of DVP or defense vs. position: Kelce, Andrews, Tonyan, Cook, and Hooper in that order. Pretty much in order from most to least expensive. You could look at some punt plays such as either of the Bills TE’s especially if the have trouble running on the Ravens at all, or Gronk or even one of the backup TE’s for Cleveland I can see one of the getting a TD tomorrow.
Start with your defense and and your TE last as the range of TE options on DK make sense wherever you land in terms of pricing. To get different large field Gpp’s don’t worry about correlating. There is plenty of offensive fire power we’ll see in multiple games, especially from KC, GB, NO, and Tampa. Also don’t worry about using a player or 2 vs. the defense they are playing against. This will also differentiate yourself for large tournaments. There are some other nice options for Cash or GPP we’ll give out in our WFF Discord chat tonight and tomorrow up to the big kickoffs. Cheers.
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If there are any questions feel free. Its better to ask then not to know what I am talking about, it could save your NFL fantasy day!