Fantasy Football Starters of Consistency: Keys to Evaluating

Fantasy Football Starters for Consistency

Success in Fantasy Football depends on the rate of consistency of which players go about their performance. The Baseball hitter who is most consistent over the season is praised with a high batting average with which no one can argue. How though, can football players be accurately estimated as to their performance equaling production: Well, there’s not a really easy way to determine basic fantasy football stats. Let’s take a look though, at a scenario here of two running backs with limited experience:  Which of the two running backs listed below was the more valuable fantasy running back so far this season in 5 games?

A. Melvin Gordon
B. Tevin Coleman
C. Equally valuable
D. More info is needed to make a decision on this fantasy lineup

While fundamentally, you could make an argument for Melvin Gordon, simply based on the volume of carries and workload he currently has in San Diego. But the first argument to that is based on whether your involved in a season long commitment or a daily fantasy football league. Both could be equally valuable in many standard or PPR leagues. The best answer though here, would be D.

Even though both players have virtually the same total stats on average with the mean calculation, they have different variations on their fantasy points scored in standard PPR Yahoo leagues, therefore need to be carefully chosen as to a week 6 and beyond fantasy starter.

Another way to see at it…

You could say, that the higher deviation from the mean average goes to Tevin Coleman, which shows below, a low of 5.0 points and a high of 32.0. Gordon breeds ideal consistency in fantasy football at least through the first 5 weeks. The more data you have, the better. Here is a summary of the 5 weeks from Yahoo PPR scoring on a few comparisons side by side:

Consistency with the Standard Deviation

If all things are equal the season long fantasy gamer will prefer Gordon so that he or she may obtain the consistent results by avoiding those downfalls in fantasy points during the season. The home run hitter is great to go for in season long leagues in which, for example only %5 of the team owners will win any prizes. This would be needed play, given the low probability of beating large numbers of opponents in many contests. Therefore that would entail going with Coleman and his big play potential..

 

The standard deviation as shown below, for Gordon is much smaller, making Coleman obviously more risky. Let’s next get into calculating this along with the CV

Standard Deviation and the Coefficient of Variation

The CV is found with this calculation: Standard Deviation/Mean. For help on actually getting the Standard Deviation first  Click Here for that, just type in the all week’s fantasy points  once you have both calculations, you can compare the numbers more efficiently.

For Tevin Coleman, the CV is 0.56, which says that the standard deviation is 56% of the mean. Larger CV’s mean that they are going farther from the mean on a weekly basis, and that is not good for consistency.

 

For Melvin Gordon, the CV is 0.23. The smaller CV from the mean obviously means that Gordon is more consistent in scoring fantasy points.

The next thing to consider as a key to fantasy success in scoring you want to consider the matchup that the chosen player has against his defense as to whether the difficulty of the matchup merits letting his performance rip this week.

Yahoo also has a nice tool, where you can research the fantasy points scored against fro a particular defense, where you can see how the defense is doing against running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, and even tight ends. With this data, as it progresses on during the season, gets more reliable and accurate, and is a measureable on how tough the defense your players actually is.

Don’t forget too, to always keep tabs on touches, meaning targets the player receives along with carries in the run game. This can be found on any stat compilation on many sports sites.

With all of this in mind are you ready for your week 6 matchups and beyond?

14 thoughts on “Fantasy Football Starters of Consistency: Keys to Evaluating”

  1. Nice work Andy, you’ve really comprised and excellent breakdown of succeeding in fantasy football here,i really like how you have added the consistency averages for players, and why consistency is so important from players in fantasy football. I now have a new fantasy football website to add to my bookmarks 🙂 great article!

  2. Hello, Andrew,
    Right always consistency is the key to success in almost every aspect of life.
    Some issue takes long to achieve the success, but if the rate of coherence is good, you will achieve success.
    I like the fact that you have shown clearly how this issue of consistency is needed in Fantasy Football starters.Consistency will create information that will help to decide on the fantasy lineup.

    Thank you.

  3. Great article on evaluating players in fantasy football. I can see where it would be useful to take into consideration the consistency of the player. However, I don’t know about doing all the math LOL. I love to play fantasy football and I go on my gut. This sounds like I would a lot better using the formula you have provided. I just don’t know how to arrive at the standard deviation :/

  4. Great tips on how to determine consistency between players that may appear to be even to some people. For any fantasy sport consistency is definitely key to winning, and you have showed us how to really get the numbers to show who is likely to be more consistent week-to-week. With fantasy football I generally due daily leagues, so it is definitely good to know which players will come closer to their avg ppg.

  5. Hey Andy,
    Adding those stats must have been some good amount effort, I am sure. I really liked the fact that you pointed out the consistency factor which is vital. I totally agree that its consistency which determines the value of player and not momentary form.
    I am adding this to my bookmarks list, for sure 🙂
    Really great article. I enjoyed it thoroughly!
    Pushkaraj

  6. It is always good to see what a player does from game to game than give too much credit to a player that has big ups and big downs. A player that holds up his average is consistent which is the measure of a player. Several variables make a player not consistent and others consistent. The more games played the more reliable the average is for a player. Consistency may change for a number reasons including a sorry coach not getting the best out of a player.

  7. Wow! I have participated in Fantasy Football before and have looked at stats, but I never knew there was so much more behind it. It is great to learn something new. I now wish I would have joined a league this season so I can utilize this info. Thank you for sharing.

    1. Great Brad. I don’t want anyone giving up on a cool past time like this. You may also check out one of my latest posts and keep checking back weekly

  8. Wow! I have participated in Fantasy Football before and have looked at stats, but I never knew there was so much more behind it. It is great to learn something new. I now wish I would have joined a league this season so I can utilize this info. Thank you for sharing.

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