Fantasy Football Starters for Consistency
Success in Fantasy Football depends on the rate of consistency of which players go about their performance. The Baseball hitter who is most consistent over the season is praised with a high batting average with which no one can argue. How though, can football players be accurately estimated as to their performance equaling production: Well, there’s not a really easy way to determine basic fantasy football stats. Let’s take a look though, at a scenario here of two running backs with limited experience: Which of the two running backs listed below was the more valuable fantasy running back so far this season in 5 games?
A. Melvin Gordon
B. Tevin Coleman
C. Equally valuable
D. More info is needed to make a decision on this fantasy lineup
While fundamentally, you could make an argument for Melvin Gordon, simply based on the volume of carries and workload he currently has in San Diego. But the first argument to that is based on whether your involved in a season long commitment or a daily fantasy football league. Both could be equally valuable in many standard or PPR leagues. The best answer though here, would be D.
Even though both players have virtually the same total stats on average with the mean calculation, they have different variations on their fantasy points scored in standard PPR Yahoo leagues, therefore need to be carefully chosen as to a week 6 and beyond fantasy starter.
Another way to see at it…
You could say, that the higher deviation from the mean average goes to Tevin Coleman, which shows below, a low of 5.0 points and a high of 32.0. Gordon breeds ideal consistency in fantasy football at least through the first 5 weeks. The more data you have, the better. Here is a summary of the 5 weeks from Yahoo PPR scoring on a few comparisons side by side:
Consistency with the Standard Deviation
If all things are equal the season long fantasy gamer will prefer Gordon so that he or she may obtain the consistent results by avoiding those downfalls in fantasy points during the season. The home run hitter is great to go for in season long leagues in which, for example only %5 of the team owners will win any prizes. This would be needed play, given the low probability of beating large numbers of opponents in many contests. Therefore that would entail going with Coleman and his big play potential..
The standard deviation as shown below, for Gordon is much smaller, making Coleman obviously more risky. Let’s next get into calculating this along with the CV
Standard Deviation and the Coefficient of Variation
The CV is found with this calculation: Standard Deviation/Mean. For help on actually getting the Standard Deviation first Click Here for that, just type in the all week’s fantasy points once you have both calculations, you can compare the numbers more efficiently.
For Tevin Coleman, the CV is 0.56, which says that the standard deviation is 56% of the mean. Larger CV’s mean that they are going farther from the mean on a weekly basis, and that is not good for consistency.
For Melvin Gordon, the CV is 0.23. The smaller CV from the mean obviously means that Gordon is more consistent in scoring fantasy points.
|M. Jones Jr.||Det||22.4||18.45||0.82|
The next thing to consider as a key to fantasy success in scoring you want to consider the matchup that the chosen player has against his defense as to whether the difficulty of the matchup merits letting his performance rip this week.
Yahoo also has a nice tool, where you can research the fantasy points scored against fro a particular defense, where you can see how the defense is doing against running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, and even tight ends. With this data, as it progresses on during the season, gets more reliable and accurate, and is a measureable on how tough the defense your players actually is.
Don’t forget too, to always keep tabs on touches, meaning targets the player receives along with carries in the run game. This can be found on any stat compilation on many sports sites.
With all of this in mind are you ready for your week 6 matchups and beyond?