Fantasy Football Strategies: Divisional Playoffs

Whether your taking gpp shots or cash shots in your DFS fantasy football strategies for this weekend, here the main slate breakdown as far as safe plays goes. Will also give some tips on some risks that I would take in tournaments.

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I will break this down by most important position to take first. Unconventionally I choose to pick my defense first and then work my skill position lines around the defenses that I think will have success tomorrow.

Here’s some game theory pointers in my Video.

Go to Sportsline for the NFL game picks

Cash Defense:

Rams; At decent ownership expected around %14 the Rams are a safe bet for a 0 non-negative score that you can get from other defenses. Even if the efficiency of GB can lower their score their Defensive to offensive line matchup is most likely to find a way to wreak havoc.

GPP Defense:

While the Bills are the highest owned defense, the Ravens look to prove then can force turnovers from the young Allen as they pressured and intercepted one of the most efficient QB’s last week.

Best Bets at skilled positions:

QB:

Lamar Jackson. I am very inclined to take advantage of the best matchup. To think Jackson is the 7th highest QB on this DK slate is ludicrous. He can do it best of all with his legs in the best MU for his strength. I’ll take the 2nd highest salaried for this kind of potential production. If someone knows someone I don’t about this Bills rush D, like they would actually stop this guy then please respond and warn me right away! There is nothing that would prove the Bills can do so for me.

RB:

Alvin Kamara fits the bill for the RB most likely to succeed. I’ve heard people taking Devon Singletary as their best value back. That sounds gross to me vs. this Ravens defense that is not getting the respect they now deserve. Also Kareem Hunt is almost full proof game script with the extra juicy revenge narrative at low ownership for the slate. JK Dobbins is a guy you can take easily in GPP’s for low ownership as well.

WR:

I am by no means a Ravens fan. Let’s make that clear I am a Browns fan. Both teams actually have good options at QB and I’ll tell you why. Both running or 2 read type quarterbacks don’t give themselves a lot of options when it comes to receivers unlike Brady or Bress who will throw the ball to literally anyone who’s open. I want guys like Jackson for cash and Mayfield for GPP, (Allen could fit into this category but he’s the 2nd highest owned QB). I would say you can plug in M. Brown and M. Andrews both stacked with Jackson here but it depends on your build type whether you lean cash or chalky type or low owned gpp type. You have your highest owned options Steph Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Michael Thomas also good in their own respect.

TE:

I mentioned Andrews as a good pick if you can fit him in. I don’t normally go high price at TE as a practice. There are a few good matchups to go with in terms of DVP or defense vs. position: Kelce, Andrews, Tonyan, Cook, and Hooper in that order. Pretty much in order from most to least expensive. You could look at some punt plays such as either of the Bills TE’s especially if the have trouble running on the Ravens at all, or Gronk or even one of the backup TE’s for Cleveland I can see one of the getting a TD tomorrow.

In Summary:

Start with your defense and and your TE last as the range of TE options on DK make sense wherever you land in terms of pricing. To get different large field Gpp’s don’t worry about correlating. There is plenty of offensive fire power we’ll see in multiple games, especially from KC, GB, NO, and Tampa. Also don’t worry about using a player or 2 vs. the defense they are playing against. This will also differentiate yourself for large tournaments. There are some other nice options for Cash or GPP we’ll give out in our WFF Discord chat tonight and tomorrow up to the big kickoffs. Cheers.

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Fantasy Football Strategies: NFL Wild Card Week

When you look at a fantasy football slate including NFL wild card week, there are many layers to it.

NFL Wild Card Week

What you get is many layers, all of which are important to the onion but not all of which are as important to the one digesting the food.

Similar it is in fantasy football, likely daily fantasy football for your chance to win this week in wild card week. Your fantasy football strategies covered in this site off more for beginners such as my article: Daily fantasy football strategies for beginners: Wild card. This article featured last year’s overall consideration of the slate of wild card games.

This week gets interesting because you can break it up by days of 3 game slates or in total 6 games! That’s a lot for the playoffs.

Fantasy Football Strategies

So what layers are we considering for the playoffs????????????????????????????????

We are only considering the layer of matchups combined with the preferential plays for each game. This way if you wanted to even play a single game showdown slate you could with the help of these options:

Indy/Buff:

Josh Allen  Proj. 24/36 274 yds and  2.10 TD’s.

Allen is the big boss in this offense that still has no traditional sense of a running game which won’t matter anyway when it comes to this matchup vs. a stout run Defense. Take Allen for passing and rushing upside/floor.

Stefon Diggs Proj. 8.2 Rec. 95 yds 0.50 Td’s.

Its playoff Diggs time and you cannot go completely wrong her unless he gets hurt. He’s still their number #1 option and best deep to mid range option for Allen. Use them together as Aleen zips throws to him.

John Brown Proj. 4.4 Rec. 58 yds 0.35 Td’s

Brown is another deep threat to talk about as he’s back and productive already after missing games. When covering Diggs, go to Brown.

Jonathan Taylor  Proj. 19.2 Car. 92 yds 0.63 Td’s

Taylor should get fed in a good matchup vs. the Bills run defense. The only problem is it may be a shootout to try and keep up with Allen.

T.Y. Hilton Proj. 4.7 Rec. 61 yds 0.41 Td’s

In case of the shootout or not, Hilton is the best option to go to at any range of the field for Phillip Rivers. While we don’t have to use Rivers, we could.

Rams/Sea

Chris Carson Proj.  13.4 Car 55 yds 0.42 TD’s

Carson figures to be a main option as the Hawks try to deliver on being favored in this game probably due to the Rams QB seemingly out. The best way to keep the great Rams D off balance is to balance the attack with Run.

Russell Wilson Proj. 21/32 219 yds 1.80 Td’s 

Wilson with rushing flr/upside will get you there I believe even with this tough defense. This would prove to me that matchup can be over-estimated, take the steady QB points as the 2nd option in this game.

Robert Woods Proj. 5.6 Rec. 62 yds 0.31 Td’s

Usually you can add in a couple touches on the ground for Woods, as he would figure to continue to be their top and most consistent option.

Cooper Kupp Proj. 4.4 Rec. 48 yds 0.21 Td’s

The 2nd option on this team and as long as they are a bit behind in this script these guys will have solid matchups as we have no idea about J. Adams as to whether he can play, we’ll keep our eye on this situation.

John Wolford Proj. 16/27 173 yds 0.82 TD’s

The Rams will be in dire need to have this system work out victory for them in order to get enough from their defense. Don’t look for the backup to do too much unless he has to.

DK Metcalf Proj. 4.8 Rec.  71 yds 0.49 Td’s

As the last guy i’ll go with here, he seems very matchup proof as opposed to Tyler Lockett. Seems like a big day could be in store here for one of them.

TB/WSH

Ronald Jones Proj. 15.6 Car 70 yds 0.55 Td’s

I believe they sort of ground and pound here to take advantage of the defense and avoid the upset and keep them off balance.

Terry McLaurin Proj. 5.3 Rec. 66 yds 0.37 Td’s

Here I believe McLaurin is the premier WR in this game due to his sole usage on his team and the Buccs forcing Wsh. into this situation. Most likely.

Tom Brady Proj. 24/37 271 yds 1.90 TD’s

He’s not projected for a whole load of stats but I believe playoff Brady shows to be more then efficient as needed for this wild card game.

Alex Smith Proj. 23/34 206 yds 1.30 TD’s

Banking on Smith somewhat airing it out in this game as Tampa stuffs the run. The only teams that has less then 1 yd before contact per play is TB.

Leonard Fournette Proj. 5.4 19 yds 0.23 Td’s

I think its likely that Fournette surpasses his projected stats here, as the thing the WSH does allow is yards before contact as the most of the playoff teams. Even after contact the fact that Wsh DOES limit yards in bigger plays and touchdowns should not limit this potential split time share for carries.

Logan Thomas 4.6 Rec. 39 yds 0.46 Td’s

As the 2nd option in this WSH receiver core, he’s been a good sleeper pick all yr in fantasy and is one of best options in playoffs. Smith will look here.

Godwin/Evans/Brown/Gronk

The four headed monster is a headache to try to decide and sift through with pricing on sites and Brady’s possible favorites.

TB DST 3.58 fantasy points 1.15 sacks 0.99 Turnovers

You have to take a defense and this is one of the potentially highering ones.

Antonio Gibson 14.7 Car 55 yds 0.67 Td’s

Gibson can pick his spots in the TB d, if not playing the DST go for him as he gets his share in multiple ways as under-owned.

Balt/Tenn

Lamar Jackson Proj. 18/27 197 yds passing 1.80 Td’s

Not included in these projections are the rushing yards for the QB. Jackson will obviously get some in addition to a favorable matchup for passing the ball. There’s not a lot good about this Ten. pass defense. Fire his ceiling up!

Derrick Henry Proj. 23.5 Car 127 yds 0.71 Td’s

It a appears to be a boom or bust type of a day for Henry, as he will get some yards before contact which is all he need to get a head of steam. Or if he more often get pressured due to a good pressure rate from the Balt. line, he won’t get going. I’ll take the latter as a superstar player that they won’t stop feeding in this game. My 2nd option in the script.

Marquise Brown Proj. 3.9 Rec 52 yds 0.50 Td’s

A disappointing year hopefully has Brown becoming for volume based in opportunities and efficiency. He’s actually been more consistent over the past 5 weeks, due in part to Jackson’s passing.

Mark Andrews Proj. 3.9 Rec 48 yds 0.50 Td’s

The 2nd best option for Jackson to attack this Tennesee defense.

J.K. Dobbins Proj. 12.5 Car 72 yds 0.62 TD’s

We can easily see Dobbins hitting value at the right price getting the projected yards and a TD. Consistent for them.

Ryan Tannehill Proj. 18/28 206 yds 1.60 Td’s

I can see Ryan easily getting some good looks downfield to pay his salary off. Its that kind of underrated offense. His WR’s look to have decent to good matchups in this contest. The pressure from Balt. however will be rough.

Chi/NO

Alvin Kamara

It appears as though Kamara will not play due to C19

Latavius Murray 11.5 Car  49 yds 0.28 TD’s

Murray will surpass the above projected numbers to be the value play of the slate. Take the running yards.

Michael Thomas 6.7 Rec 77 yds 0.46 Td’s

Its a bit tough to decide which direction to go in this offense, but this is the most solid 2nd guy in getting volume.

Mitchell Trubisky 21/34 202 yds 1.30 TD’s

If we can trust him, love the rushing upside/flr. But if he gets pulled, this will be very risky at the same time.

Drew Brees Proj. 23/33 237 yds 2.00 TD’s

Being projected for 2 TD’s is an easy proposition, as Brees seems like he has one more chance to get the team to the promised land.

Taysom Hill Proj. 2/3 21 yds 0.18

I don’t think Hill be breathing down Brees’s neck. Just look for him if getting at a value to fill a lineup. Playoffs are also a good time for his running.

David Montgomery Proj. 17.9 58 yds 0.52 TD’s

We have to include Montgomery on our pools especially in the case they keep this game close. He’s involved in much of the offense.

Allen Robinson Proj. 5.7 72 yds 0.34 TD’s

Lastly, we have to take a serious look at Robinson with this passing game relying on him as the sure #1 guy. Look elseware for gpp deep threats.

Pit/Cleve

Diontae Johnson Proj. 5.4 Rec 62 yds 0.43 Td’s 

This will be the top pick for me on this game with the skill level short to mid range to deep threat, he does it all including the red zone in good matchup.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Proj. 5.8 Rec 58 yds 0.49 Td’s

The 2nd option I say with hesitation, because all 3 guys are gonna get their share in the seemingly Ben led O, leaning on these guys with  no run game.

Chase Claypool Prj. 3.7 Rec 54 yds 0.49 Td’s

Rounding out the super talented slot role with some bones in run game.

Nick Chubb Proj. 17.2 Car 82 yds 0.48 Td’s

The Browns hope to duplicate their efforts from last week on the ground, as their main option here. Steelers will be expecting it.

Kareem Hunt Proj. 10.8 Car 42 yds 0.22 Td’s

Hunt figures to be heavily involved no matter the script, especially if needed more so in the passing game.

Ben Roethlisberger No explanation needed.

Baker Mayfield Proj. 18/31 212 yds 1.10 Td’s

A guy who will TRY to make his mark for his future but he has seemingly come a long way. When forced to throw in pocket is the question.

Jarvis Landry Proj. 4.4 Rec 54 yds 0.20 Td’s

A solid option as the leading pass receive as they need him for the threat of the successful trick plays this year they have run.

Eric Ebron Proj. 2.8 Rec 31 yds 0.28 Td’s

One of my favorite TE’s this week and many weeks of the year.