Phila Phillies 2021 Positional Breakdown

C: JT Realmuto R 29 yrs C

Has the real power at over .240 ISO in certain splits. Obviously he’s one of best at the position offense and defensive. His 2019 production carried over in terms of OPS and SLG. Had an even better OPS and wOBA in 20′.

1B: Rhys Hoskins 27 yrs R 1B/OF

A bit too high expectation were created for Rhys in 2017, 18 when he struck with high power numbers. Very nice BB% but very low BAPIP and BA in 2019. He created enough barrels to still be considered a nice overall power play that yr. For 2021 you’d expect that he might carry over similarly however, this production mostly came vs. lefties with no shift in the outfield.

2B: Jean Segura/Scott Kingery

Segura is Very worth playing at a good salary for his .563 SLG .274 ISO for an infielder obviously very good platoon split to take advantage of. Vs. Righties you just hope for a stolen base and/or a ground ball hit.

We’ll have to let Scott Kingery slide as far as his 2020 production as he tries to as he tries to get you a nice balance of power and speed that he once had with 15 SBs in 19′.

3B: Alex Bohm

Bohm has had a nice spring training already early on, as he’s come in ready. The very successful break out of .358 BA to Righties, but the power came vs. lefties. We could also see someone like a Brad Miller in the mix year on some days with COVID still in the mix. This roster has lots of depth.

SS: Didi Gregorius 31 yr old lefty

ONLY worth playing away from home in 2019, especially against lefties. If I was managing this team he would take a seat these days at home as even though he had a .355 OBP vs. Righties, he cannot steal a base. This Away split advantage was backed by a 31% HR/FB rate, even though he hit a lot of ground ballers in this split. We know exactly when to attack however moving forward based on 2018 as he had this outstanding split at home instead of on the road vs. Righties at the same Yankees park. Since the Away split from 2019 was too small, we move forward with the split vs. Righties as I expect his BA to bounce back up no matter where he plays

LF: Andrew McCuthen L 34yr old OF

McCutchen has generally the same in splits for OPS. However he has much better power vs. Righties with .226 ISO compared to .118

RF: Bryce Harper L 28 yrs OF

With a 1.074 OPS at home vs. Lefties this is a guy who has a .354 ISO in that split. Has the upside also for a stolen base vs. Righty if settling for that split you get a .225 ISO. Has stable numbers in putting up 35 HR’s on a regular season. This will be a shortened season..

CF: Adam Haseley Lefty

He probably won’t start every day but he showed decent improvement vs. Righties last yr in getting walks and on base. Where’s the power??? Roman Quinn can also come into play when needed as a cheap value play in daily settings.

P1: Aaron Nola

3 elite type pitches make Nola as it makes it hard to hit him with hard contact. He’s of course considered with the upside elite potential.

P2: Zack Wheeler

Wheeler, impressively has 2 fastballs that are effective, producing weak contact. He will get you plenty of innings pitched next to Nola.

P3: Zack Eflin

Eflin rounds out this slick 3 man rotation as he has a unique style of pitch without much velocity or spin rate. Ground balls are coming.

P4: Vince Velasquez

Throws a mid 90’s fastball as he’s a high risk as he has his command and control issues.

P5: Spencer Howard

Likely to stick in the rotation as he’s got quite a few pitches and may very well move up in the rotation soon. He throws the flames with SO’s!

Miami Marlins Roster: Opening Day Breakdown

C: Jorge Alfaro R: 18 HR in 19′ but not very good slugging. However a .265 batting avg. thru the previous full seasons sparks my interest when he can stay in the lineup because of his poor defensive skill.

1B: Jesus Aguilar R:  His fresh start bounce back was made possible by his career low SO rate with power off the fast balls.

2B: John Berti R: A experienced utility guy that could conceivably steal 40 bases in a full season.

3B: Brian Anderson R:  20-30 HR, and gets doubles due to hitting the ball hard as he has massive amount of SO’s.

SS: Miguel Rojas R:  only 5 hr in 500 AB’s but even at his age of 32 he’s shown a lot of hitting iq at the plate to get on base.

LF: Corey Dickerson L: Seems like he could bounce back to a 20+ homer guy, but he should be in a platoon. Look for value when in lineup.

CF: Starling Marte R: It appears perhaps the Marlins feel they can sustain power out of Marte, or just use him as a lead-off hitter. This is not something you can rely on, but steals plenty of bases even at this stage of his career. He’s heading into free agency.

RF: Garrett Cooper R: batted .281 in 19′ and .300 in 20′ but most of that was vs. Lefties in 2020. Seems like a plotoon value as well. %34 LD rate was nice.

OF: Lewis Brinson Gpp play one of best springs hitters although sub .200 batting averages won’t help his case. In minors he hit 106 HR.

OF: Harold Ramirez decent numbers overall nothing outstanding in 19′ but only got 10 PA’s in 20′.

P1: S. Alcantar RHP: all-star: 2 shutouts lots of innings pitched in 19′ but led in losses. Has an array of sinkers with vertical movements, hard to hit. ERA of 3.69 or below in first 3 seasons.

P2: Sixto Sanchez RHP: To get a full season out of this fastball and change up will be dangerous for hitters. Compared to Kyle Hendricks. A control pitcher. Potential to turn into more of a SO pitcher. There is upside. Could be a near elite groundball pitcher if he mixes in any more pitches.

P3: Pablo Lopez RHP: avg SO numbers. Did not give up too many homers but can attach sinkers and changeups making him a 3 pitch starter. The changeup is really good throwing it %30 of time which is great to have. Limits to his ceiling, not much wiff rate. A safe pick on most nights.

P4: Elieser Hernandez RHP: A below avg. fastball but terrific slider.

Andy Gallagher’s 2020 NFL Draft Board Defensive Linemen Rankings

Sod what I wanted to do at least for a typical draft is for go one major position of choice that matters the least in fantasy production whether season long or dfs and that would be the interior lineman. Even though defensive tackles count for points in IDP’s its not a very productive position to play out during the year in a season long fantasy format. However, I could not leave certain guys out of my rankings for our season long IDP or Individual defensive players for 2010 because we may see a scenario in which there is only 1 edge rusher drafted atop all others and then a defensive tackle or 2 may likely come to be drafted in the top ten before another edge rusher who would seem more likely to get sacks then a defensive tackle would. So I just included edge rushers and defensive tackles together here who are likely to get sacks in overall fantasy production for the new rookies as well. Here’s how they rank for the 2020 nfl draft.

  1. Chase Young. Very obvious as he has refined skills in all phases of the rush and pass game.

Chicago Cubs Fantasy Baseball Preview for 2021

C: W. Contreras 2020 notes: 

Putting up good numbers as a batter, and an elite catcher. Signs of improvement esp. in ISO on a bounce back year last yr. Stat cast does not really back it up however last yr.

For 2021: Actually, he improved his game every yr overall for the last 4 in the majors. Defensively solidifying himself as every day player and offensively in power, and hitting with hard hit rate and average exit velocity.

1B: Rizzo 2020 notes:

ISO regularly over 200 high Hr/FB rate should drop a bit in overall OPS. BA and wOBA guy who has decent upside for homers.

For 2021: We’ll give him a solid pass for a consistent player that produces runs annually despite the BA drop in the short season.

2B: DavidBote 2020 notes

Good hard contact, exit Velo, and did well getting on base. Nice Exit Velo upside here. Can run.

For 2021: Set up to be the regular 2B with nice showing dating back to 2019 to present with plenty of raw tools to work with to for upside on the season.

3B: Kris Bryant 2020 notes

Nice power can produces consistently. STATcast shows decent speed and good xWOBA. Upside is also good for ISO power.

For 2021: With concerning drops in all production last yr, as I’ll once again give him a pass with hand injuries that riddled him. Other then that the only thing that keeps his power or upside down is a declining hard hit rate.

SS: J. Baez 2020 notes

Stabilizes numbers past few years with ISO of at least 250 past few.

For 2021: Very dissapointing fantasy production last year, should step it up ok for for patience at plate and tools are still very good and young.

LF: I. Happ 2020 notes

Happ flashed excellent plate discipline, proven SLG, and very good barrel, with decent ability to steal, even though speed nor SO rate rates out very good.

CF: Nico Hoerner no 2020 notes

Needs to find power to even be considered on our radar, as he has a lot of work to do. Therefore, was not on 2020 notes, however should get starting nod on outfield.

For 2021: Its exciting to see what he can do as a switch hitter, his power coming from the left side, hitting well with contact, given his .879 OPS.

RF: J. Heyward, J. Kipnis 2020 notes

Not much consistent production here but these guys can hit at times as veterans.

P1: RHP: Kyle Hendricks 202 notes:

One of least hardest throwers in league. Elite control. Look at him as value play vs. weaker LU’s. only 7.6 career K/9 47.5 GB for career.

2021 Outlook: 

2021 outlook: If he goes crazy like he did the first few games of last year, we have ourselves an ACE, at least for a while for a discount price due to great movement on his not so fast fastball.

SP2: Zack Davies: 2020 notes:

Only 6.4 K/9 through his career, however a good GB pitcher, grades out bottome 5% in league in SO’s.

2021 Outlook:  The changeup led to a great fantasy output all season. Very consistent as hopefully this was not a one off year.

P3: RHP: Alex Mills no 2020 notes

2021 Outlook:

Had some very good games however not vs. balanced Lefty/Righty linesups. He gave up over 2 HR/9 vs. lefties. Gave up much of this in power on 2-0 or 30 counts, as he’ll have to improve his walk rate.

Competition update: Contending for a rotational spot: 

Trevor Williams RHP: 2013 June Draft – Round: 2, Pick: 5; If they can get towards max hitting out of their to 5 hitters which is possible Trevor will get you an above average win % for points, DFS, and if he can get back to his 2018 stats he would be a solid option.

P5: Tyler Chatwood

almost a walk per inning. too many.

P6: Jharel Cotton may be given opportunity to take #5.

Bullpen is bad, need Kimbrel to close out like he used to. Attack this pen.

Continue reading “Chicago Cubs Fantasy Baseball Preview for 2021”

Brewers Starting Roster: Overall Breakdown

C: O. Navarez

Nice upside but not much to back it up really who once had some good qualities. Consider M. Pena when he comes on. It depends on the platoon as to when to play him as he’s more of a defensive pitcher.

1B: Daniel Vogelbach

Is at about .440 XSLG which is what he did in the real SLG. His raw power proved true to his style of play with a K% that was not bad so that he was able to maintain a 98th percentile BB%. Very impressive in 2019. 2020 was a steep downfall. Look out for the platoon.

2B:  K. Hiura

50% hard contact. Top 8% in most stat casts. Impressive rookie with slug, exit Velo and top off speed hitter with .600 slug in 2019, however he must improve vs. off speed pitches to keep himself in play.

3B: Luis Urias

Looking to try to be a high batting average guy once he breaks out.

SS: Orlando Arcia

This position does not seem solidified as he has issues defensively as well as in base running. You would need his hard contact which is good for him to be usefull.

No changes in the Outfield below compared to 2019 I believe.

L. Cain

Good hard contact but no ISO low Bapip last year but usually a Elite BA guy

C. Yelich

Top 1% in most batting cats can also steal. Amazing even the HR/FB rate was a bit low.

J. Garcia R

Decent power and OPS improved as base stealer last year with 10. Consistently hitting 40% hard contact with a top 13 max exit Velo

5. J. Smoak S

consistent ISO career 190. Excels At BBs. Xwoba good

6. Ryan Braun

Consistent hitter that can still get you something in DFS for a good price.

7. E. Sogard

had a couple really good OBP yr

Bench:  M. Pena, B. Holt, Jed Gyorko, Ben Gamel.

P1: Brandon Woodruff RH

Over 10 K/9, 5.5 IP per game. Nice pitch mix and 94th Percentile Velocity according to 2019 numbers. For this season look for him to continue to dominate with his fastball and plenty of changeup. He will have interesting matchups with batters.

P2: Corbin Burnes RH

Throws 96 mph with a hard slider. These are set up by sinkers and cutters, which are fastballs. This makes for a great potential for future. He has to cut down on his walks as a result of improving his control.

P3: Josh Lindblom RH

The former KBO ace had a bad liftoff in his return to MLB. Look for him to take his opportunity. Has a high spin rate on fastball even though its not fast. You could consider him a 5 pitch pitcher. That’s versatility.

P4: Adrian Houser RH

Needs much improvement with his control. Specializes in the sinker. Can give you 5 innings easily with good GB rate.

P5: Eric Lauer LH

Had a high SIERA at 4.65. Will also look to a bounce back, but should have been able to survive better last year backed by good Brews team.

Relievers:

Josh Hader LH: Seems like he gave up too much barrel last yr but with the small sample its better to focus on his fastball/slider combo to bounce back.

Devin Williams RH: Rookie of the year reliever makes him the future closer due to hard fastball and lots of movement on his stuff.

 

 

Cincinatti Reds Starting Lineup and Fantasy Advise

C: Tucker Barnhart R 2020 notes

Barnhart sparingly shows power getting 11 HR’s in part time role. Splits time with Casali who is same age, serving as defensive stoppers, but both are bad in overall batting stats.

For 2021:

This is a split time share, as we won’t be targeting him.

1B: Joey Votto 2020 notes

Votto had a down year, as he’ll be 37 by the time the season ends. He did maintain himself vs. Righties still bringing in a .361 OBP. His plate discipline is holding up as no changes there, but his power seems lost backed up simply by the drop in homers the last 2 years.

For 2021: We’ll continue to see a decline in his WAR and hard hit rate.

2B: Mike Moustaskas  L 2020 notes

Only 31 yrs old. Providing championship mentality, Mouse provides very consistent batting numbers. ISO always over .200 but no SB upside. Career yr in homers at 35 in 2019.

For 2021:

He brings us consistent power for fantasy and won’t be drafted very high, but should be at a good spot in the lineup to utilize his power for RBI’s.

3B: Eugenio Suarez R 2020 notes: 

2nd in majors in HR’s last year while not providing steal upside.

For 2021: He can still barrel up the fastballs, however has a high SO rate on breaking pitches.

SS: Jose Garcia: no 2020 notes, rookie

For 2021: 

The cuban in fielder and field, however we’ll have to wait and see about being a hitter to stay in MLB.

LF: Jesse Winker  L: 2020 notes

Winker is only good vs. righties so far. He can move up in order at #2 but with these new arrivals that won’t be much. no steal upside Hits ball hard vs. fast ball. SLG is well over .500 but only vs. Righties for the platoon, BA overall is about .280 showing maturity at the plate. 3 yrs.

For 2021:

Continues to be a Lefty vs. Righty Smasher with a .944 OPS vs. Right, but now also doing well against Lefites with a .890 OPS. Much improved.

CF: Nick Castellanos: 2020 notes

Led league in doubles last year. His X numbers have been very good the last few years, Does not provide steals. Consistently provides well struck balls and a very good Cash play option. SLG always should be well over .500 and BA around .290.

For 2021: 

Has a high barrel rate. Expect more of the consistent same from him.

RF: Nick Senzel or Shogo Akiyama 2020 notes

Senzel Took 95 ABs as a lefty overall what he did though was interesting is that As a lefty he had impressive stats with up to .900 OPS and slugged .526! Expect him to be an every day player moving foward. The righty Akiyama was a rookie who made some flashes fresh from Japan.

For 2021: A time share situation bottom of order combo in this lineup. I won’t mind going here on some days in DFS.

Interesting Other hitters.

Arisides Aquino R 2020 notes. 

This is what I love about looking into these guys into their advanced numbers, minor league numbers if needed, and film. Tied MLB record with 7 or 8 homers in first 10g. His minor league numbers show nice power and speed potential, So even though his SO’s caught up with him shortly after the 10 games, he’s a high upside multi-RBI Hr hitter who also should provide steals in addition especially if he can get on base more and get better as He’s been around a bit a 25 yrs old. late bloomer.

SP1: RHP Sonny Gray R: 2020 notes

10.5 k/9 compared to 8.5 prior 2 yrs. 53% GB P which is very high for his career. And well under 1 HR/9 at just .87. Best pitches are slider and curve. Gets down in the lower 80’s with those but can throw the 4 Seam at 94mph. His breaking ball can lock guys up including lefties so he has a really nice hook on those pitches.

For 2021: With a curveball, fastball, and slider all working for him, look for better results with this arsenal compared to the small sample size.

SP2:Luis Castillo RHP 2020 notes

Castillo is elite at not allowing SLG nor exit velocity. He can allow balls up in the air either with GB rate of 55%. 1.22 HR/9 which he has improved on thru the few yrs of play. High SO upside used him a lot GPP. relies on 4 pitches, FB, slider, sinker, changeup. CU is his best pitch maxes out usually about 96mph.

For 2010: Used quite frequently in DFS by myself expecting GPP results, however gave up too many HR’s. His Velocity his very high along with his great changeup, high SO’s is the priority use for him.

SP3: Tyler Mahle no 2020 notes. 

For 2021: It dosen’t appear to me that he’ll get enough innings or low enough ERA to have too much fantasy value, however it appears he has over a SO per inning potential.

SP4: Miley L 2020 notes

Keeps the ball down, as he give you maybe 5 innings making it difficult to get a quality start or win. Dont’ see him doing better with the Reds. 1.2-4 HR/9 allowed.

For 2021: Could bounce back after a shoulder repair to be an average at best fantasy option.

5. Anthony Deschfani 2020 notes

Most effective P is the Curve showing a lot of improvement over last yr, however this is the #1 starting pitcher we can attack, as he allows 1.5 HR/9 and his 4 seamer and sinker up to 95mph. They are expecting him to improve their 5 man rotation as he has 4 different pitches he uses.

Also Michael Lorenzen the top setup man can play all OF positions, so great althletes there as Lorenzen looks to get a starting gig. He has a nice pitch mix with a mid 90’s fastball.

 

 

SD Padres Fantasy Baseball 2021 Position Overview

C: A. Nola

Surprsingly he’s managed a .808 OPS over the past 2 yrs. Thats some of the better hitting catchers in the league. He will only sit from what I understand whe Yu Darvish is in the game, so he’ll get plenty of time.

1B: Eric Hosmer  LH 2020 notes

Below avg hitter who has not hit .800 OPS in a few yrs. Maybe their holding onto that 2017 .882 OPS 498 SLG %?? Can hit it very hard at 46% contact and with a line drive rate of 22% probably up in the order like this, sometimes you just need a veteran guy to bring in some runs for cash contests. Terrible vs. Lefties but should start out with full playing time based on the contract.

For 2021: Keep in mind he will get lefties vs. him as relievers, although theres so many hitters in this lineup, he could be overlooked, even with a productive barrel rate, however last short season was not his usual.

2B: Ha-seong Kim:

Used Kim a lot in DFS for KIW (South Korea) when I could afford him, as he’s good in all categories, not elite in anything except potentially steals. A low SO former SS must field well in order to stick in this spot. Should be ok.

3B: Mannt Machado 2020 notes:

Pretty even split of GB to FB rate. His BAPIP was only .274 for his first full season away from camden yards. I expect these numbers to bounce back somewhat to what he did in Balt. Remember he was top 92 percentile in all batting categories even in a year of partial run at Camden during the trade.    Struggled in ST play going 2 for 23, however his 300 mil contract secures his spot at third base.

For 2021: His consistent value has been highlighted by a lower SO rate and more walks. I wouldn’t be concerned with the drop in Hard % last short season because even if its like that in 21′ his SLG % and ISO showed that he’s just very productive getting extra base quality hits.

SS: Fernando Tatis 2020 notes

With a .410 Bapip I doubt that will stay that high, as well as his 32% fB rate, indicating inflating numbers but Hit for power and ran with real speed. Had a  .047 negative expected Woba differential. Doesn’t sound like much but even though all the scouts have said this guy is real and everybody loves him as a fielder as well, we could expect a regression in a sophmore campaign. You never want to rely on one year. Going pretty high in drafts. Showed off his max exit Velocity barrel rate at 21 yrs old. Son of another player.

For 2021: With elite STAT Cast numbers, even defensively, he’s one of best including Outs Above Average as a bonus to his offensive game. He’s easily projected to lead the team in steals, and maybe even in HR’s.

LF: Tommy Pham 2020 notes

We are looking to use Pham for getting on base and OBP vs. Righties. The huge payoff bonus is that if Pham gets back to one of his previous seasons we’re looking at approaching steals of 20-25 per season, he could be a valuable DFS option if the price is right.   Didn’t do much in ST, but everything suggests he’ll be healthy and ready to go despite soreness in his side. “Participated in a sand-lot style baseball game organized by Trevor Bauer. Interesting..

For 2021: This is the guy who could come close to Tatis in steals but Tatis is too skilled to be overtaken. A strip club incident de-valued his stock I believe in a disappointing yr for him.

CF: Trent Grisham 2020 notes

Hit 6 HR”s in 156 AB’s in nice ST play.

For 2021: He kept up that pace of homers nicely in the regular season featuring patient hitting. He’s another one with speed to steal.

RF: Will Myers 2020 notes

Big Will Myers profiles similar to Hosmer, can hit line drives, has some power, with 34% rate, thats a killer. But can also steal bases as a savvy veteran which Hosmer did not do much of. Not sure if he’ll be at this cleanup spot. Was HOT in ST going 9 for 22 with 3 HR, 5 RBI’s working his way to everyday at bats.

For 2021: With his career year, we’ll see if he can keep up the Barrel rate, reduced K rate, and once again capable of plenty of steals.

Utility: Jurickson Profar 2020 notes

Afte losing Renfroe and Manuel Margot to a trade, Pham and Profar will seem to work themselves nicely into the lineup at positions of need. Nice production even though batting way down in the A’s order, can steal a base, and Very good avg exit velocity showing consistent surprisinlgy signs of power to add to his GB and line drive rate, even though having a lower BA and OBP. Sneaky coming in perhaps right behind Pham in LU.

Utility: Jake Croneworth

Croneworth seemed like heart and soul of this lineup hitting all over the field with his quick stroke. He is the ultimate meaning of utility as he’s pitched in games, with defensive skills overall.

P1: Yu Darvish RH: 2020 notes

Not quite an ace, first half bad, 2nd half good. Too many walks, high SO upside. ERA under 3 for 2nd half. Despite giving up lot of HR.’s Grounded at better rate then ever before. Was at his career K/9 rate for career at 11-11.5

For 2021: While increasing the SO to walk ratios, his Homeruns allowed dramatically went down. There seems to be some risk that he reverts back to allowing well over 1 HR/9 but he performed like a legit ace during the short term.

SP2: Blake Snell LH

I did not get any 2020 notes from last yr, however as I recall with TB he had a tough time with inning and HRs given up. He is a possible scrub when off his game but when he’s on, he’s a high upside (80 percentile) SP who will give another inning per game this season as they paid him for a reason as he can be solid with about a 3.5 SIERA.

SP3: Chris Paddock:  RH

His Actual ERA was backed up nicely by his XERA of right about the same, 3.3 K% of 27% is good, and relies on 3 pitches. Mostly 4 seamer at 60% and Changeup at 28% and a little curve ball. Very adequete at the 2 main pitches and not bad at the curve either staying under .300 Woba. Needs to be more Well rounded and develop into an ace for this team. Has almost 10 k/9’s.

For 2021: The fastball/changeup did not deliver in short sample. However he has a good SO to walk rate. Don’t hesitate to take him in the mid range as he was attempting to be their ace and has tools to do so.

P4: Mike Clevinger R  6’4″   6 IPG 2020 notes

12 K/9, avg for career is about 10. Kept his HR/9 very low at .7, 0.93 for his career. This is his 5th year. I hope theres no drop off such as what we had with Beiber and Kluber. Last yr had a 2.71 ERA and 1.06 whip

Exit velocity allowed, 86.1 which is in tune with his career, that combined with all-star caliber wOBA allowed, SO % and BA allowed. His curve and slider is most effective pitches, and his 4 seamer gets up above 95 mph.

Says he’s fully healthy already, his partially torn miniscus is all set, he’s gotten strong and should have no restrictions heading into ST, should be working all 4 pitches into his mix and should be really good as long as he mixes it up and is not predictable.

SP5: DiNelson Lamet RH

Actually has a 4 pitch slection. 11.7 K/9!! Really good DFS option at a value price for sure. To 7% of league at 33.5 SO%.

For 2021: A lot of people are excited to draft him a bit early. Held the batters down last year as batting avg. was very low and the slider that strikes out a ton of batters will be likely very effective again. Kind of a wait and see situation in actuality as he’s still recovering, ramping up, and building up innings in SIM games.

P2

Garrett Richards  R

Last couple shortened injury seasons he threw over 10 K/9, but that is not real, as his career shows he’s at 7.8-8.8. He does have up to a 96 mph fastball as his specialty, and can get hit hard on this pitch with hard contact over 40% and exit velocity allowed with some of the worst in league so this is an easy spot to attack rather then use him.

P3

Zack Davies

Only 6.4 K/9 through his career, however a good GB pitcher, grades out bottome 5% in league in SO’s.

4P

 

5P

Joey Lucchasi

Had a good rookie yr at 10 K/9 and then fell off last year at only 8.7 so his Sinker hits up to just about 90 mph topping out. Most effective pitch is the changup using that less then the Sinker 51 compared to 35% so perhaps that will go up in usage.

Colorado Rockies Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

C: Elias Diaz: no 2020 notes

A servicable catcher who had a good 2018 as he’ll pull for the #1 catcher spot after spending time in Pit. that year.

1B: Josh Fuentes no 2020 notes. 

If he can use the power he has, he could be a sleeper in coors field if he can hold off the next guy who opted out.

1B: Ian Desmond  2020 notes. DNP in 2019.

Showing to be a ground ball hitter he has maintained his 20 HR seasons through a lot of streakiness. This entails a High or low enough BAPIP to be able to take advantage at times of the Velo, and hard contact as a veteran.

2B:  Ryan McMahon 2020 notes:

Focusing on K% for young guys, his is high however, his hard contact and exit velocity make him look elite at his 200 ISO. Not sure if he’ll be worthy yet of his spot in the order.

For 2021: a HIGH hard contact hitter who strikes out a lot. While you can find a lot of these guys, in today’s game the field will increase upside.

3B: Brendan Rogers: Will Rogers be able to do something this year. He has dissapointed thus far.

SS: Trevor Story 2020 notes: 

All his batting numbers stayed with the previous season’s performance along with speed added to the real power of exit velocity of 91 mph and nice distance staying at high ISO.

For 2021: Story ended up being a better player then Arenado, and I don’t see it affecting his number losing him in the lineup.

LF: Raimel Tapia: no 2020 notes

Makes good contact at plate, along with his speed, makes him a fantasy play with higher upside.

CF: Sam Hilliard: no 2020 notes

Set to play ahead of Ian Desmond, flashing power and speed.

RF:  Charlie Blackmon 2020 notes

Improved his Hard contact last yr along with everyone else in the league as he’s right on par with his career production I would’t expect him to slow down yet, showing nice barrel power.

For 2021: Just continue to get him at home as he dominates there but not nearly the slash line on road.

Utility/DH: CJ Cron

Impressive hard contact, exit velocity, and barrels, for a guy who’s been around for a few years and I believe has not hit stride as he’s hit value the last 2 years of play in DFS.

Daniel Murhpy  Free agent. 

As a top batting average and SO guy throughout his career, he dropped off it seems due to age. He may have to make way for younger talent.

1. SP German Marquez RHP 2020 notes: 

Happy with his pitch mix getting Ks in ST including FB curve slider sinker best balls are curve slider allowing sun 200 xWoba has 95mph fastball  6.26 At home ERA compared to 3.67 on rd.

For 2021: Very happy to have gotten 82 innings which led the NL even though he did not get a full season in. Now at 3.51 for his career on road the last 3 yrs, this is a good way to evaluate his worth.

2. SP: Kyle Freeland LHB no 2020 notes due to his very down 2019 yr. 

For 2021: Sporatic ERA over the past 3 yrs, you never know what your gonna get. Throwing a nice mix of pitches now, but none are above average.

3. SP Jon Gray RHP: 2020 notes:

6’4” was a #3 overall pick FB 50%, slider 96 mph best pitch is slider and curve at only 11%.

For 2021: All his stuff was down significantly down last year with a 2mph concerns scouts at 38 yrs old. He relied on that fastball. He relied too much on the above noted pitches. If he can get it back don’t count him out.

4. SP Antonio Sentazela RHP 2020 notes

In addition to a new curveball, a renewed changeup and good ol’ self-confidence — which showed again this Spring Training with his two scoreless innings in the Rockies’ 7-4 loss to the Rangers on Wednesday — Senzatela lost 15 pounds during the offseason. Has a reflexive habit of grabbing candy whenever it’s laying around, will have to be tamped down once the season begins. Senzatela is a rare player who gains weight during the lengthy season. He, his wife Vanessa and young son Tiago are all partners in helping him keep the weight off, which may help him control the ERA. Fastball 62% slider curve   Best pitch is curve, needs lot of work as has poor k% woba batting avg and hard contact allowed about a 94mph fastball.

For 2021: To top out the valuable pitchers on this team, Senzatela could easily move into a #2 SP role. A nice pitch mix helps him keep the ball on the ground and in the park at a decent rate. This is what you need on this team.

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona D-Backs Starting Lineup: 2021 Breakdown

C: Carson Kelly: 2020 notes:

When this lineup is healthy it may be more refined then last season, which would prove myself and many others wrong. As basically a rookie, thats been around for a long time, show good control taking walks and puts up .337 xWOBA, good for a rookie for sure with 18 HR’s.

For 2021: A fundamentally sound catcher as he should stay in the lineup. Backups are ready here but they are only backups. Should see 2019 like production.

1B: Christian Walker: 2020 notes

His improvement showed in every phase of the game. Has massive hard contact barrel and exit velocity.

For 2021: He is underrated as projecting out by most to have a 25 HR year with decent OBP. He’s a breaking ball hitter. Adequate defensively.

2B: Ketal Marte: 2020 notes

The question here is to what extent is the power real. There is data to back it up much more then compared to Starling. To what degree he sustains I suspect, he’s made improvements but not as good as his wOBA actually shows. Expect some kind of decline.

For 2021: Dramatic drop in production bad not this bad, with only 2 HR’s last year. Barrels and hard contact way down. These are not even career averages. Expect more then this.

3B: Eduardo Escobar 2020 notes

With high BAPIP and low Fly ball rate for his career this is not something you usually see. Seems like he rode the fly ball wave of this team. Maybe this how Arizona humidor results are going forward??

For 2021: Regression hit hard here as well, however did get career best avg. exit velo of 88.6.

SS: Nick Ahmed 2020 notes

He’s not very far off from what he can potentially do as a serviceable SS that can play up in the order when needed providing DFS value.

For 2021: Could easily get more of the same steady productions. Gets power and speed into the lineup even when down in the order primary a defensive stalwart.

LF: David Peralta 2020 notes

Does not excel in any particular area. His exit velocity is fine and had one outlier 30 home run season. Don’t chase it in DFS.

For 2021: Proven better vs. lefties. His is a lefty himself. Shows upside based on BA, and the power, not getting a lot of walks, which you can use in fantasy in the right spots.

RF: Kole Calhoun 2020 notes

Has a good xWOBA at .333 which is better compared to OPS. Can get barrels leading to a good amount of homers but not likely matching 33.

For 2021: Very good contact rate and barrel % propelled Calhoun to elite HR’s for a shorted season at 16. A lot of this is due to his effectiveness vs. breaking pitches for look for the right matchup to capitalize.

CF: Dalton Varsho: No 2020 notes: 

For 2021: Looks like a time share with Tim Locastro who did bat .290 last season in short sample. Good glove and legs 2nd year player who went under the radar for me last season.

P1: RHP: Zac Gallen No 2020 notes

For 2021: considered a potential ace pitcher however for the near future his 2.78 ERA will go up due to his SIERA being over 4 during the season so don’t go overboard too early.. Wait for 2022 to evaluate him as a #1 SP for his team first perfecting his array of different pitches available to him.

P2: LHP Madison Bumgarner 2020 notes

Very good fastball spin however very bad exit velo and hard contact allowed. Bumgarner has never been the same since his motorcycle accident 3 years ago but is only 30 years old. Even though sparingly used his best pitch is the curve allowing only .250 xwoba only 18% last yr expect that to change.

For 2021: Bumgarner is only declining due to the accident a few yrs ago, but now its against age and lots of homers given up.

The D-backs had a poor BP and released their closer Greg Holland after an implosion, and replaced him with a successful Archie Bradley going 18 of 19 in saves! However his MPH reduced from 97-100 to 93-94 range

P3. LHP Caleb Smith 2020 notes were unfortunaly lost in the shuffle. 

For 2021: The florida flame thrower produces soft contact as he give up high risk fly ball with a high SO rate. his 2+ ERA will not dulplicate. He has also had his share of health concerns.

P4: RHP Merril Kelly 2020 notes

Had a nice showing in ST with a FB right on the corner, and had a couple of these high curving pitches where batter SO swinging under the ball. This may have been his breaking ball as he’s only allowing sub .250 Woba on this pitch. 25 yr old control pitcher.

For 2021: Has proven to pitch around had contact hitters creating nice matchups in his favor with SO’s resulting form fastballs and cutters.

P5: Lude Weaver: no 2020 notes. 

For 2021. Not much worth noting here but he’s a savvy veteran as he trys to bounce back from a season like so many pitchers struggled with, the HR.

 

 

Seattle Mariners Starting Roster: STAT Cast Breakdown

C: Luis Torrens

He could be just a placeholder or he could have real sleeper potential due to his AA numbers, however he could also split time with Tom Murphy.

1B: Evan White

Not an offensive threat at 1B, but a 91.7 exit velocity for future potential.

2B: Dylan Moore

Played 7 positions last year while hitting at a 90.4 avg. exit velo.

3B: Kyle Seager 2020 notes

An interesting Fly ball hitter with high upside for DFS. His Hard Contact has maintained over 2 years and his Xwoba is almost .350. He appears to lack the physical power as he’s really a sub .200 ISO hitter for his career.

For 2021: A bat first guy who’s tough to strike out in addition to above, as his weakness is lefthanders and breaking pitches.

SS: JP Crawford 2020 notes

With bottom of the barrel X numbers he would have to hope that his OBP% is real and his base steal potential increases to stay here. They could have used a free agent here if they had money or trade for a body.

For 2021: Crawford will defintitely do on defense, winning a gold glove, therefrore not going anywhere.

IF/DH: Ty France

Needs to get hard contact up, had high exit velo, so we’ll have to see whats real soon. For ST he has been slugging homers, and its also reported he could serve as a backup catcher for some reason.

OF: Mitch Haniger 2020 notes

Haniger become more of a fly ball hitter sacrificing his overall numbers with low BAPIP for higher ISO. High upside is good but they did not translate into enough SLG or HR’s without even looking at the SC numbers. Launch angle increased but not Exit Velo, as the #’s reverted back to rookie.

Backup cather: Tom Murphy 2020 notes

Basically a rookie last year showing good power with with HR/FB and very good hard contact % as he should be a high upside volatile play in DFS. Very high SO rate to go along with it.

OF: Kyle Lewis

An impressive showing of real slugging numbers in a small sample size rookie yr after overcoming injury as an 11th overall pick in 16′. Didn’t hit enough homers at all levels of minor league play. Lots of SO’s. Hit a lot of HR’s in his rookie year.

Bench:

Shed Long

If he could get his SO numbers down towards where he was in the minors, that would be good for this progress as his ISO and Steal potential are fine, as he would get on base more.

Mallex Smith

I’s rather put Smith here then anyone else unproven at this point just for his high steal upside. Feels like he’s been in the league a long time, as his OBP should bounce back better this year, based on previous seasons.

SP1: Marco Gonzalez LHP

Does not have a fastball but his other crafty pitches will help him be one of the leaders again of the NL in IP, ERA, and maybe wins.

SP2: Yusei Kikuchi LHP

Another lefty makes for a nice 2nd guy due to his improved cutter, helping out his metrics a lot for fantasy start fill ins.

P2: James Paxton 32 L 5 IP

Should give u 11 K/9 but also 1.3 HR/9 to attack for a sneaky type stack against.

Paxton (back) recently completed his fifth bullpen session since resuming a throwing program in March, Brendan Kuty of NorthJersey.com reports. Yankees manager Aaron Boone provided a positive update about Paxton on Thursday, indicating that he’s “really encouraged” by the southpaw’s progress and that the recovery process from February back surgery has “gone pretty smoothly.” Paxton remains on track to be ready to pitch in games by late May or early June barring any setbacks.