Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy 101: Player Updates and Breaking News

In my previous articles such as NBA Daily Lineups using an NBA Optimizer, we talked about a general value proposition for your own value system. In Daily fantasy basketball strategy, if you don’t get this part right you will lose. You can also check yourself by looking to rotogrinders 101 guide. Im article per the above nba daily lineups link, there is an easy to follow chart you can reference to make sure a player that you choose on a certain site fits the bill for potential return on X value investment.

BTW, what is the X value?

Great question, as the X value is simply for the sake of simplicity, hoping for 5 dfs, or daily fantasy points for every 1k of salary that you spend on the site. Most players are averaging about 5k, so your want 25 points at this player salary on the site. This is of course not real money, as the only real money you are using is the money you spend on the contest, perhaps $1.

Player updates and breaking news are the staple to your game to have any chance of winning on the main sites contests’ on the daily or nightly.

Players sitting out or hurt for whatever reason creeps up on your roster you chose, if your not checking the starting lineups roll outs 20-1 min. before tip offs. You need a place where you will get a tip off for true verified information.

Where do you go for Player Updates and Breaking News?

You could try the twitter sphere and try and follow every team’s beat writer for the latest. However this is not easy for myself as there are too many updates on twitter in general to sort through and too much going on in my general everyday life to glue myself to twitter.

A better solution is to follow the slack chat with a team of players updating from around the web. Here is an example of a NBA breaking news feed:

Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy
Click on the Picture to get to the NBA DFS Staff on Slack Chat.

Once you are set up for player updates per the DFS Army site, you will have access to the community, and you will receive an email if you like every time someone updates the section of the slack chat, so you don’t miss an important player update.

If you have a player that is getting you 5 X value and is coming off the bench to automatically increase your team’s output, you will lose as the others professional players’ teams are set up to take advantage of the minutes uptick increasing their chance of wins in ownership.

For example a player on Drafkings only costing you 4k, only needs 20 points to get you the 5 X or 5 Draftkings points per 1k of salary use. Once you have this locked in you can move on to the next player. Actually the rest of your lineups needs to already be locked since hopefully you have spent part of the day researching and using the tools you need to be successful in nba dfs.

You don’t want to settle for a gross lineup when it comes to trusting in experts free picks, as they make mistakes too. And while in cash games you may cash in on some nights, you will give yourself little chance in making any real money, which is made in larger tournaments. Per my article, getting your bankroll right, the ladder system approach does exactly that.

Let me know of any more questions or concerns you have about Daily NBA Basketball Strategy in your comments. Thanks for reading.

How to Get Your Fanduel NBA Starting Lineups Tonight 1/18/19

As you look at the Friday 1/18/19 Fanduel NBA Starting Lineups Potential on the slate, there are enough games, 7 in total to begin breaking down the slate using the fundamentals I referred to in my NBA Daily Fantasy Advice 101.

Here in this article for today, I am going over how to apply these fundamentals to see about our results as I will make a lineup based on these easy strategies for you.

Please however keep updated at least, if you cannot on the DFSArmy site, then on the easier to read and keep up with updates on the Draftdashboard with the latest real time news with updates on the “NBA Cheat Sheet”, so you can get that for a trail run, of which you can then cancel before getting charged the full amount.

Here is the main slate breakdown using the DraftDashboard:

Check back for updates as I will help to get optimal must plays thoughout the day.

NBA Daily Lineups: Using an NBA Lineup Optimizer

In this article we will dive deeper into strategy on how to win in nba daily fantasy with advice on how to understand how to go about your process for finding daily nba players.   

Where to find to confirm nba starting lineups.
You can find your nba daily lineups in your rotogrinders page per my video below.
I also show you where to get advice on the daily as the best or most reliable source for getting updates and up to speed on the latest nba news which include the daily nba lineup shakeups as many players sit out or are injured on the night.
So while you can check a general optimizer, with varying results on your nba dfs contests, you will have to make manual adjustments on the fly leading up to minutes before tipoff to get optimal results. This perhaps happens at times in football as the actives and in actives are announced 45- to one hour before a kickoff but nba lineups are not so clear before the tipoff, making it more difficult to give your self the most practical chance to win IF others have more information then you leading up the tip offs.
The DFS Army news and slack chat will give you real time updates once you are a member.
Remember as well, that on fanduel there is one player that is dropped, which was not done in prior year, but is not implemented on the site. Some nights there is simply no way to change it up as teams may not make any announcement before the lock of the slate there.
Draftkings should allow you to change your lineups with later starting games, allowing you to grab someone else at a different start time as long as you remember to check your dfs lineups.
Here is an example of a sheet used on DFSArmy.com to get your player values set up.

X Value Propositions

One very basic way to using the lineup Optimizer on sites like DFSARmy is to use the X or times value that you get out of a certain player, it works like this according to the sheet below:

This can be found and referenced inside the DFSArmy Blog as well:

nba lineup optimizer

Using the projected value rating based on the player’s salary and their projected points by the system, this is what it looks like on a recent slate time with the actual up to date values on cash and GPP options.

NBA Daily Lineups
I decided I wanted to look up the value on both contest types in the higher mid range salaries so I highlighted those yellow for you. Here is basically shows that Kemba Walker is most likely to hit 5 X value. However remember, as show about, a player in the 10-11k range is only expected to get 5-5.24 X return on value, so if you pay up you will get more projected points, its just that your rate of return will be lower.
I hope this helps in understanding Daily NBA and setting lineups using the optimizer. For best preparation in using the Domination Station Optimizer got to DFSArmy.com DS Optimizer Tutorial.

NBA Daily Fantasy Advise 101: Getting your BankRoll Right

I will go over in this article, the not so exciting part of NBA Daily Fantasy Advice. However take this advice to the Bank! You will be profitable if your start with this approach.

I you have played any kind of fantasy sports including season long football, you at least have the basics of how scoring is measured and set up. Daily fantasy sports works different of course, in that your players are salary managed according to the cap allotted to you in the contest you entered.

NBA Daily Fantasy Ladder System

You can view the article I base my work off here: The DFS Ladder System, as I will simplify this approach and offer my real world experience to show you the best advice there is to offer to manage banroll.

What you can do ensure you have enough bank roll management is to primarily separate the 2 type of contests, with hybrids included. This will simply mean that your tournaments of over 100 players will be worked very differently on most selective slates. Many times you can use these contests as hedge against your cash and hybrids failing as well. Here is the screen shot of the ladder system:

NBA Daily Fantasy Advise 101
Click on photo to get the sheet in the DFS Army Resources.

What is Cash and GPP?

Keep in mind that the sliding amount that you want to invest will give %20 to GPP exclusively. As you become more skilled and experienced in the GPP game I can recommend upping that amount. I have experienced average returns doubling my money in small investment tournaments and placing first place overall in a certain sport contest, particularly NHL.

Cash is anything referenced that gives you at least a %20 chance of winning positive cash. Many times winning more then double your money depending on the contest. I personally avoid the Head to Head simply because you don’t really know if you are playing against an expert unless you are able to enter a beginner contest, lessoning your competition. I prefer to enter the %50/50’s and Double ups as a basis of more than half entry point, providing myself decent cash flow for the day.

The idea is to more than double your exposure to winnable contests consistently, so that your bank roll never drops too dramatically. Will you have days where you still lose it all. Yes you will. Hopefully you have not invested though, more than %5 of your total allocated funds, I recommend.

The Hybrids by the way are anything from triple up to 100 man 20 player payout to be about exact. So you can combine the dfs strategies as you would like from both ways of formulating your lineups.

Summary of Cash/GPP

Here is a quick summary of the Cash/GPP question per the DFSArmy Blog:

  • GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool, or the big contests with top-heavy payout structures were 25 or fewer % win, and the real money is at the top 5 spots. (Pro Tip: These are like playing lottery tickets. Even with 150 LUs entered your odds of winning a top 5 spot in a 15,000+ entrant contest are miniscule.
  • CASH = any contest that pays 40% or better of the entrants.

Hedge Yourself

Lastly, how do you hedge yourself from total loss. Well there are enough lineups you will make from the methods I will show you in my next article but basically you will have all of your lineups different by at least 2 players so that the same players are not hurting your every lineup in NBA.

Now that you hopefully understand the difference between the contest types and structures related to your spending account, I will get into the basics of the foundation of your NBA lineups including the nba lineup optimizer theory in the next article.

Fantasy Football Analytics Projections: How to Correlate

What do we do with analytic data to support decisions made in fantasy football?

Don’t worry I won’t bore you with the analytics since i’m not a math major nor set out to be one, but will put this into simple terms as it relates to fantasy football and other sports as the info you really need is readily available in the resources below.

When you set up to win, you should constantly be testing for better
results and application of the processes you use to win in daily
fantasy sports.

When you learn how to correlate, you recognize the difference between
a correlation and just a number.

There are correlation factors in many stats of the analytic game.
Rushing attempts always correlate to rushing yards, in fact more then
any other statistic in football. Then targets correlate to receiving
yards.

Nothing really correlates in the touchdown department from year to
year or week to week, unless they have a good red zone percentage
going for them, which means the team is using the player fairly
consistently within the 20, 10, and goal line downs. A team may very
well go to a player they frequently go to at any position, especially
with the game on the line or in the playoffs.

Another correlation is with winning teams. Winning teams likely run
the ball for a while with their #1 back, especially at home, as teams
always do better winning at home. The correlation will be seen in
their up tic in rushing attempts, all correlating nicely together for
your fantasy outlook.

When correlating, you must begin with players who are obviously likely
to score points together. These include the Quarterback with his receivers, mostly the WR and TE positions.

This works in other sports as well. In fact very well in the success I have seen recently in NHL Hockey.. if you would like a breakdown of how I placed 1st in a recent tournament on fanduel, out of 7k+ players, check out my breakdown here for my NHL DFS GPP Strategy.

Here is a spreadsheet for the what the layout looks like when correlating players from opposing teams.

fantasy football analytics projections
Displaying the Correlation Matrix Spreadsheet

When using a correlation sheet, you simply follow the columns of the players you want to use so that you can see if they have a red or green or neutral correlation. You can get the sheet at DFSArmy.com or by clisking on the sheet itself. I explain some things to look for in this video:

If you notice I also show the fantasy football algorithm sheet used by draftdashboard. They have an interesting way of rankings by comparison to the latest sheet for the week for the divisional round playoffs. There is no correlation sheet on this site, however, you can go to the “browse by teams and look for the top 6 otpimal plays by team on this screen, giving you a better chance to obtain 2 players from the same team such as Rivers with Allen this week for Los Angeles.

fantasy football correlation

By the way, here is my fantasy football rankings by position post for my best plays by position.

To note: You can get rankings as well on fantasypros.com.

However, its better to get projections, reflecting the analytics as well as the human reason for coming up with practical rankings based on these projections, of which I find are best at the DFSArmy.com such as Big Marley’s Draft Kings Player Pool.

And of course the latest Research Station for the Week, as its finished as of this writing. Big Marley’s player pool should be updated tomorrow as its better to wait a day before the main slates play on the dfs sites. For Fanduel, Geek’s Player Picks are Best with his breakdown.

Any questions for comments about fantasy football or other sport analytics in general? Or even for this Divisional Playoff? Go ahead and comment below

Fantasy Football Projections by Position: Divisional Playoffs

Get your team stacked by position on the main Divisional playoff football slate on fanduel and draftkings for this write up of fantasy football projections by position breakdown.

This page will be updated on friday morning with my own player pool per my explanation on youtube here:

Here are the default DraftDashboard rankings of the QB position to start with.

fantasy football projections by position divisional playoffs
The quarternacks who should score the most points.

Since there are about a few sites I take into consideration when coming up with my projections by position, I will basically balance everything out according to game script to sort through these guys, as you have to make decisions based on the flow of the game and total score, whether the game is close or not. Here is my write up for this slate.

Quarterback Pool

Here’s who stands out to me. When you look at the over/under total for the KC/Indy game, you can’t ignore the fact that this is implied as much higher scoring then any other game. The game should be cold in KC, but thats not a factor. With KC given 5.5 points as of thursday morning, look for any changes in the line today or friday. My feeling is that Mahomes should be favored as he is no longer a rookie. Amazingly he has been better on the road this year, however this environment is tough for any team, as this game should however be very close, perhaps closer then 5.5 points. If i was betting on it, it would have to be closer then this spread. Therefore we have ourselves as projected a close high scoring game as advertised. Load up on these quarterbacks with their teams no problem! However no defenses here will be needed.

Best Choices: Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck

I could easily see this game going either way in the highest scoring projection as the Colts could have quite an edge in many facets of the game, as the Cheifs are one dimensional with the passing. Mahomes though is till the #1 pick as he has been all season averaging 5 points more than any other QB during the 2018 span of time.

Running Back Pool

Since we are working with fanduel and draftkings, we have to consider the value of what we are actually paying for on these sites.

Tod Gurley is 1k less on draftkings, making an unusual scenario at the position, where you can fit more stud backs into your lineup creating room for other receiver positions on your roster. So he is worth a look on DK only. Zeke Elliott is viable on both sites, no matter if they lose by the spread or not. He is always used, getting touches.

Also, surprised to see Alvin Kamara 1100 less on DK. This is back who is the #1 offensive option or weapon on the Saints. As long as they play towards their potential in this matchup, he will get his touches.

Damien Williams is rock bottom pricing in the top tier of back, aslo being 1k less on DK as he has earned the starting job and I personally am not worried about him getting his fair share of touches on the day.

Marlon Mack is quite a bargain on DK, and is very playable there as they have proven to run the ball against a more formidable defense of the Texans. Can they also do it on the road against a weaker defense. I would give the approval on this play.

Melvin Gordon is shockingly low for his usual tier on both sites as he is really banged up. This assumably is the reason he is so low. Still a bargain for limited carries projected in the game in a must win playoff win or go home.

Best Choices: Depends on site and left over salary

Wide Receivers/TE’s Pool

The obvious choices are not so obvious when you start to build lineups using the players above. I am leaving the top 2 guys out in Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill which could be a big mistake, especially with Hill’s big play potential. However I believe the Colts secondary can handle him with their safeties not allowing much deep, as I believe this will lead to Travis Kelce leading the team in targets and yards, which makes sense when you compare what the colts allow to TE’s to WR’s. To see the differences, like the above picture, for all positions head on over to draftdashboard.com 

Best Choices: Travis Kelce, Eric Ebron, TY Hilton, or Tyreek Hill depending on the QB you choose, with WR’s from the Eagles/Saints game.

For more on how to correlate your lineup so that you do not place players who negatively correlate against each other, visit my Fantasy Football Analytics projections, and how to correlate.

 

NHL DFS GPP Strategy; Fanduel 1st Place Mirror Image Breakdown

When targeting players for your GPP winning NHL DFS strategy for today, you’ll want your lineups to be based off these helpful tips to get the stacked picks you want. Here is the video breakdown to start with.

In harmony with my last article NFL is still covered this season with my “How to Win in DFS Football 800k Contestthis is from my own recent 1st place Large Tournament Result

As this video goes over there are 4 things you want to be choosy about when you make lineups, in giving yourself the best and most consistent chances of winning tournaments. When I say “most consistent chances of winning tournaments,” that indicates that not every tournament will be very high scoring as there is a ton of risk involved in these types of player picks. But when just one of these multiple lineups goes off, you could have yourself in the 5k winning range, based on a one contest calculated entry. Leave room for risk and loss with these lineups.

  1. Hit on high over/under and implied team total plays.

This way you can get yourself the bettor’s angle on games that are likely to score high. These are pretty obvious teams you can use, just make sure to check sports books in general.

  1. Think about line combinations you want to use.

There is no particular right or wrong answer as to how exactly to stack on hockey. It could be using all starting 3 forwards with a defenseman. It could be a double stack of the same, or it could be any combination of 3 + 3 with forwards or defensemen. You can find the most updated line combinations at LeftWingLock.com

  1. Power Play Bonuses

Your power play stacking performance is of course different than the 1st, and 2nd starting lines. They will be different combinations which give you bonus points and creat quite a few goals on top of regular goals as this usually works to give more goals to a team that gives up penalties.

  1. Goalies with high upside potential.

Usualy you can’t get the most expensive goalie, but its not a bad idea if you can afford one.

Remember to check the spreadsheets, for best correlation on the starting lines and power play lines for best stacking value on any slate such as the line combo projection spreadsheet shown below with easy to read color codes, green being good and red being bad for the team’s line. This is part of the dfs research station in the DFS NHL section.

NHL DFS GPP Strategy
Get the NHL spreadsheets by clicking on the photo at DFS Army.

That will cover all the basics. Keep it fairly simple as it is not that complicated. Any questions on how to make cash in NHL Daily fantasy?

How to Win in DFS Football: $800K Sat NFL Playoff Special ($200K to 1st)

When breaking down how to win a tournament on one of the 2 major DFS sites, fanduel or draftkings, there are definitely strategies to keep in mind for how to win in dfs football in tournament play.

This video will show you some fundamental strategies when it comes to breaking down a DFS Footbball Tournament Lineup that finishes in the top percentile.

Summary of the Breakdown:

  1. Make sure you are not spending up for Quarterback or DST. You will need the salary for other positions.
  2. Decide upon your stacking strategy. Run it back with 2 receivers from the same team with the quarterback, or one receiver with a receiver from the opposing team in a high over/under game of the week.
  3. Find low owned players using the DFS army projected ownership percentage and the cheat sheet plays put out weekly for GP or Hybrid.

You find a complete breakdown of more factors at the Shark Autopsy, brought out weekly on the blog roll there. You can get set up with the DFS Army here

This coming article will next cover how to finish in the top 0.001 % of tournament plays in the NHL for Hockey Enthusiasts or those willing to learn the ice. Really excited to look forward to bringing this next article to you for the Fanduel GP. Leave any related comments below, especially if you have place high in any recent tournaments on fanduel or draftkings.

How to use the Daily Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet from CBS

CBS sports has a betting and daily fantasy site called sportsline.com where there is a cheat sheet for your convenience. There you can use the sheet which should be free, to get your potential player pool for the night set up. I would like to take the opportunity, if you are reading through this to coach you on how to make real money using these same peripheral stats and grading system I use over my shoulder. Also if you are reading this article, there is some solid interest in daily nhl fantasy hockey or fantasy sport in general.
Here is a video on how I lay this out.

Summary:

1. Start with the minutes, then get into the fantasy points scored fairly recently, going as far back as 10 games is fine.
2. Get your deployment right with LeftWingLock.com for 1st thru 4th line along with PowerPlay not leaving out completely those 3rd and 4th lines, since some teams show similar minutes played in distribution per LWL’s line combinations screen.
3. Look for consistent stud players with upside as needed depending on the type of contest.
4. Check value rating on as many sites as you can.
Daily Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet

Daily Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet
The Sportsline site also has tournament handicapper lineups for all 4 major sports.
5. Check vegas and expert sports book lines.
6. Advanced stats such as line stacking correlation, usage percentage, blocked shots projections, and other phiripherals.
7. Not mentioned but listen to podcasts and visit sites such as dailyfantasysportsrankings.com for any new articles.
8. Matchups or DvP of the players opponent, who that Goalie is along with this stats, and recent performances, and the overall team performance of the defense.
As you can see, this is a different process then any other sport as you need more than just the FD fantasy points per game to make informed decisions on whether the player is actually playing up to his production or not. The underlying peripheral stats with layers such as minutes and deployment help you decide which players are safe to spend cash on, and which players to determine for on tournaments.

Pricing:

Pricing of course is optional. I showed you ways to get the value plays for free, and you can spend as much as you want depending on how deep you want to go into the game for better results. Just remember to track every player you watch and every strategy you focus on employing when needing to record your actions however you do so. Also you can get stats from NHL.com fantasy or FOX for things such as power play team percentage. All things considered, start small with your playing dollars, and the more you think of it as an investment business, the better.

Any Questions or Suggestions for future help?

You can ask away in the comments section. If you are not as familiar with the NHL game as you would like, perhaps I can write an article and make a video on explaining some of the advanced stats to look for when creating lineups. Feel free to share on social media as well, if you found something like this helpful.

 

Daily Fantasy Football Strategies for Beginners: Wild Card

For the wild card round of the playoffs you may want to use the 4 game slate to get back in on the fantasy football action using the daily salary format.

These Daily fantasy football strategies will be broken down simple enough for a beginner or newbie to understand, as well as some expert level strategy for this week’s action. We will start with the best recommended site for use for the newbies, fanduel.

Fanduel Beginner Setup:

In case you are already acquainted with the fanduel and play there regularly, you can skip to the next subheading.

Fanduel is the choice for beginners because the salary cap is much easier to fit in desired players then it is on Draftkings. Since this is a $60,000 salary cap game, you’ll want to carefully project your desired players competing against anywhere from 1 to 100’s of thousands of players with fairly high margins being paid out to a %50 or more percentile.

Daily Fantasy Football for Beginners

Don’t get overwhelmed with the projections. Just get started have fun, and most importantly don’t overspend your real life bankroll. If you have just 25 cents, that’s just fine to get started with a $10 deposit, as fanduel may likely match your beginning deposit if you want to spend the additional $10. Just be mindful fanduel, won’t likely or easily refund whatever amount you deposit unless you are withdrawing winnings. For larger amounts, I recommend emailing customer support to convince them otherwise if you are sort of in a bind in the future. You click on the link above or the blue fanduel logo to get started.

Here is a basic video explanation of how easy it is to enter a cash game lineup.

Next, if you would like a breakdown of the best fantasy sites to use for dfs, or daily fantasy sports, visit my best daily fantasy advice sites post.

In addition to those, you could also visit dailyfantasysportsrankings.com for daily cash advice.

Wild Card Considerations

When you have your wild card options on the table, you will notice there are some guys that are under priced, especially at the TE position.
There are 2 specific guys this week that will free up salary for other positions, whether they pan out or not. Blake Jarwin for Dallas who appears to have developed into a 2nd option for Dak Prescott, along with Hunter Henry, of whom Phillip Rivers loves to favor when he can as well. Throw in Ryan Griffin as a starting TE as well for a value option opportunity. When you save at this position you open things up for the other RB, QB, WR, and DST’s needed. There are several combinations you could look at this week, just keep up to date on the latest news and developments.
Again, don’t over-complicate your decisions. Just base them on what the team does best with no surprises as an NFL team wants to run the ball and protect their lead when ahead or at least balance their attack throughout the game.

Vegas spreads to favor

Rely as well on Vegas to help you determine which teams will realistically be in this position. Don’t rely on a team to come from behind and put up big passing numbers. This rarely happens in these games. You want to take running backs that are favored at home if possible, even though there are a small number of teams and games to choose from.
Daily Fantasy Football Strategies for Beginners
The Printable Vegas Lines and Injuries for the Wild Card Game: Showing highest over/under total potential game

Daily playoff dfs conclusion

Just remember its a high variance sport where anything can happen. The advantages in gameplan we have talked about above. If you have any comments on past experiences or questions in playoff fantasy football share please.