Everyone and their grandmother are looking for the best 2018 fantasy football breakout candidates. Only a few will find and obtain the real value from them.
When you have the feeling of drafting someone in the last few rounds that turns out to be able to drive your fantasy team to wins every week, that is the ultimate feeling in fantasy football success.
Of course if you are in a 15 round draft, you will need to be spending your last few picks, in my opinion on kicker and defense. That is simply because there is a lot of value at these positions that will not be drafted. So therefore, in basic, fundamental strategy, you will need to have your team drafted by round 13.
What History says
Let’s discuss for a moment, what recent history says about breakout candidates. You could search the internet for what may seem to be reliable information such as the 2017 fantasy football breakout candidates on fantasypros.com and see what is cooking there for this 2018 year. However, when diving into that fantasy football article, you will find that maybe 2 or 3 of those guys had breakout years last year. If you look back to 2016 you could say the same percentage of players were considered breakout. %20-30 percent.
So will these breakout candidates be any better? History will show. While I did not do an article like this last year or the year prior, the closest article I did was my Fantasy Football PPR Sleepers article. This was written in July the 30th 2017.
Other Considerations for Breakouts
In order to consider a breakout, we obviously do not consider money rounds as where breakouts could be taken. What are money rounds?
Money rounds are those rounds of the nfl draft as those where you must hit if you are building your team mainly by the draft. You could come up with some late round or day 3 gems but those are long shots at prospects whom the team feels could be a fit and a legitimate shot, per the measurements and film to fill a role on the team. Anything more is bonus.
Since we have more rounds in fantasy football, let’s consider breakout candidates in fantasy football starting in round 6 to make it interesting. We will go according to FantasyFootballCalculator Standard overal ADP to find these players.
Another consideration is that we don’t want to draft any player too early. Therefore a 8th round adp could have a greater upside possibly then a 6th rounder, but as fantasy football calculator says, “Never reach for a player again.”
Lastly, let’s make this a PPR league, or points per reception as I believe to be the more popular or better option for all types of fantasy leagues, from daily leagues to season long scoring systems. Also, let’s make it a 10 team league.
Best Breakout Candidates in Order of Priority (ADP)
#1 Ronald Jones – Buccaneers
Breaking news: Jameis Winston may miss multiple games for suspension for misconduct. The team is investigating.
Jones has already been mentioned multiple time in prior articles and I expect his draft stock to rise out of this official segment. But for now, this is where he stands as reports from camp have him getting 15-20 touches per game, and likely sharing some load of the work of course, but showing nice agility and pass blocking, as well as catching the ball in stride.
#2 Brandon Cooks – Rams
While this may not be likely to happen, his upside on becoming a better player in his overall game is there. However he is being drafted this low because there are a lot of options in this offense. The positive part for Cooks is that he has had the time to prepare, unlike Watson, who was traded to the Rams towards mid season, resulting in a player not familiar with the playbook. Cooks never got to his potential in New England but patience could pay off for L.A. and for fantasy owners.
#3 Micheal Crabtree – Ravens
It is not always the easiest thing to define a breakout candidate, but even though Crabtree had a breakout campaign in 2015 and 2016 according to memory, and since he had the down 2017 year, there is reason to believe he could bounce back strong. The switch from the 49ers to the Raiders a few years ago did him a lot of good. Remember when Steve Smith had his breakout revival in Baltimore? Crabtree could get similar results.
#4 Will Fuller – Texans
I am actually surprised here that his ADP here is not higher compared to those above him on this list. With Deshaun Watson balling out, it will come down to how consistent this unsustainable performance from last year can be. A lot of the Touchdowns were short catches towards or at the goal line.
#5 Corey Davis – Titans
If Davis does not break out this year, he will not make it to my list again. They have let a lot of WR’s go to now give him the opportunity, let’s hope he creates something with it going forward as the #1 WR in Tennesse.
#6 Royce Freeman – Broncos
Freeman is actually projected to go higher than a few of the guys on this list, however the Broncos make some weird decisions when it comes to their backfield and this year should be no different, as every time they get someone who could take over the main job, he gets benched out bolted out.
#7 Tevin Coleman – Falcons
While at best this would always project to be a shared RB combo, Freeman has come off some injuries and some wonder if he can carry as much load as he used to, with his smaller frame. Coleman boasts and excellent PPR rating, if he takes over more carries as well.
#8 Kerryon Johnson – Lions
A lot of the media doubt whether the Lions can actually run the ball effectively. It does seem as though the Lions are ready to commit to the running game, and if keeping from falling behind in games, this would prove to be effective, hopefully in the red zone.
#9 Devin Funchess – Carolina
In what appears to be a run heavy offense, they should attempt to open things up and that would include Funchess along with the rookie speedster they drafted to try and open things up when needed. Can he be a #1 wideout for the Panthers?
#10 Trey Burton TE – Chicago
As the #1 TE in a revamped offense, the 2nd year starter should rely on this guy in the redzone, as the QB showed a lot of upside flashes last season.
If you have any questions on how I went about this process in finding the best breakout candidates, leave a comment below or share your own candidates I missed.