This week in the nfl for our strategy rankings in week 15 give us some interesting options at RB to try to get value at with only 2 elite backs playing on the main slate on Draftkings and Fanduel. These are in order of projected points total rankings. Choose wisely.
I will begin to answer the this question today as it is a long answer. I will break this down as simply as I can as well as provide a video, giving you the opportunity to comment. You can also ask questions here on my youtube channel today.
To answer your questions simply:
To begin with, when you use an optimizer for any contest on draftkings or fanduel, you are basically leaving the control of your lineups in the hands of the optimizer. When you do this, you will not get great results. At best you will likely get mediocre results. It does not matter what optimizer you use, its just that there are various important factors that go into making the best value based lineup you can put out there in order to compete.
You never know what all goes into the algorithm that determines these lineups that are solely generated by the computer. Obviously this is a little less then desirable for a semi aggressive approach to winning consistently on fanduel and draftkings, which are still the 2 main platforms out there to compete in.
When Do DFS Lineup Optimizers work?
Daily fantasy lineup optimizers work very well when you take control over them, to varying degree of efficiency depending on how many lineups you insert into your contests, and how much variance you want within those lineups.
If you are obviously entering mass multiple entry number of contests you need a much more advanced strategy. So here’s the next question of choice for you.
How long does it take to make an optimal lineup manually?
It takes dfs experts and coaches approximately 15-20 minutes to prepare the initial well thought out lineup in cash contests, or %050-20 contests in which a large enough percentage of the entrants cash in. If you are making 50 lineups, with obviously a larger bankroll to spend, then you are looking at around at least 12 hrs of work.
Wow! A full days work with overtime to make a decent living or profit at it.
The optimizer obviously breaks this time down. Where I think this is underappreciated is the fact that even if that was shaved down to perhaps a few hrs of rushing it in your lineups, what about the hours of preparation you need to actually evaluate your players?
When you look at what all goes into the evaluation process, in the nfl football sport, it takes a whole week of preparation to begin to get a real feel for the slate on either site, as the full time job takes its toll on fantasy sports experts that are breaking down every possible aspect of the numbers and watching as much football as possible, which is the fun part anyway.
Only so much time in a day.
Yes there is only 24 hours in a day, so therefore, your day is broken up in various activities that limit your exposure to these fun or not as fun activities. This is way many people rely on handicappers or fantasy sports experts to make lineups as we assume they are working on these all day and having these pool of players ready for a kickoff, tip off, first pitch or face off. You could get handicapper advice and lineups set for you at Sportsline.com
Disadvantages of handicapping
The disadvantages obviously limit you in many ways, as obviously you might miss a player who is about to sit out as his health status may be in question. second, you limit your upside in creating a unique lineup for a tournament contest, or contest that pays lower then perhaps %20 of the field with 100+ players. Also third, you limit the amount of unique lineups you are able to make with these limited player pools. So for a site that does not offer an optimizer, avoiding a bad play or 2 on rosters, they lack any real way of making your own controlled and varied lineups.
Advantages of preparing for your own lineup optimization.
Not only do you get the satisfaction that a professional would in the least amount of time in the industry, but you would also be able to modify towards any particular player you like for whatever reason you have chosen. Maybe you know that a player is not likely to do well on the road as opposed to home, and want no part of him away from home. Or maybe you like the rapport of a quarterback and receiver playing together from a past team, now joined together again. There could be more then a few really important determining factors.
Where to get started?
Where would you thus get started in making quality lineups for yourself diversified enough to prevent you from losing cash on a daily basis? You must and most importantly develop and stick to your own routine of how you work your business. When you think of it as a business, or investment, you try of course to factor in all consideration when it comes to making these decisions.
Where to get this assistance in the daily fantasy niche?
I have watched many pros work their business through hours of tutorials, preparing their lineups from scratch, or from their own or others’ player pools. I however have not watched and one tutorial that summarizes my full process for successful winning lineups. I definitely use most of, if not all of the tools at my disposal, but my own process takes into account through months of testing my own most successful dfs strategies for completing the research and optimization needed for a successful lineups strategy.
No one really shares this as a whole with anyone to the degree that you really need. Even if they did, it may not work for you until you have mastered the player selection process to a most logical conclusion. So if your still reading, the next question may be:
Once your Process is developed what dfs tools are the best?
That question comes down to what I have personally used and experienced for the success of my own use. Or basically what works for you. Here are the tools I use daily to construct lineups, get advice, figure out who the chalk plays are, and organize data, for my own players to watch, inserting them easily into my amount of lineups, at the price point that I want daily.
By the way, I do share part of my process from time to time, in the slate breakdown at least for cash games on my youtube channel as well.
DraftDashBoard.com mainly for my own players that I want to watch and using the easy way to sort players by overall value, DvP and Player vs overall defense of the opponent. Since I play in all 4 sports, all of these are of course sortable and savable to my own lineups including watched players and players to avoid, holding that within the memory of the optimizer for as long as I want.
That way I can use my own pool of players whether based on my own analysis or other experts. You can add certain dfs experts to your pool instantly as well with the touch of a button! Here the main page I go to first in the dashboard.
When you compare optimizers such as these, you may find a lot of the projected numbers to be similar as you can see if there are any differences in the most important categories such as value rating, projected points scored, and other factors if you also use the DFSArmy Research station. Using both within the DFSArmy platform, as they are both included when you take the promotional offer, will give you full spreadsheets you can download and manipulate with an excel spreadsheet if you have microsoft office suit. If not, you can do the same on the sheet on the site. Here is the first screen you see on the Domination station once you select your contest slate and sport.
There are obviously some differences between the 2 options with advantages and disadvantages, and some similarities between both the research side and the optimizer side of both sites, price range being about the same after trial offer.
So do Optimizers work for NFL and NBA lineups for the best chance of winning in DFS? The long answer is an accomplished “Yes.”
When going over all of your possibilities for your cash game vs tournament dfs lineups, you will have to break down a lot of information to win.
The Basic difference: Cash vs Tournament
When 1 important player throws off your cash game nfl lineup, you will find that you will out of the range of the %50 you need to be in, in order to cash in. Tournaments are much different and perhaps honestly easier to create, but are high risk, because of the low percentage of winners.
In week 14 or in any other week, you want to have your same boring process that you run with week to week, once you have almost perfected it.
How to construct a Cash Game DFS NFL lineup
You should start with the most consistent quarterback in a fairly easy matchup, preferably at home in a game that should be within a touchdown of scoring vs the opponent.
When you take a QB in a bad matchup, for example Andrew Luck in a bad matchup, you certainly run the risk of the ole’ saying “defense wins championships.” yes in a world of analytical mastery, the old school terms still hold true from the old ball coaches such as Barry Switzer.
You don’t want to be running this offense here, as it does not provide modern day football diversity in offensive passing schemes.
What does this have to do with fantasy football Andy?
Yes, well, besides having a little fun with it, knowing your football iq will help you, as you must know thy self. Then you can ask the right questions when determining a cash game lineup and be in positive money. Honestly, I had strategies last year that did not work well at all this year, therefore having to change my offense, or process from year to year, even week to week to keep up with the changes in strategy.
I will now break it down step by step.
Dont’ disregard the obvious. Take into consideration first of all as many players as possible who take over %50 of snaps for any given team.
Take into account the vegas line totals and try to avoid the low implied team total games. This way you avoid an offense that is not doing well.
Take players that perform consistently throughout the season, compared to the last 5 games. We are looking for a balance between both clips.
Take players that are sure to have opportunity this week in at least a decent matchup, projected to score at least their average fantasy points per game.
Ok, so the step number 4 needs quite a bit more explanation and should probably be for another article, but I do want to get into tournaments in this article as well, as you can always check my Standard Deviation and Consistency Rankings for Week 14 for more specific help for this week.
When you are looking to gain wins according to a lot of numbers, you can easily get confused as to what stats are important. You want to have some good idea of the floor and the ceiling for a particular player in their week’s matchup. The experts that do this for a living 40+ hours a day know these numbers quite well. You can shorten the experience of evaluation all of this data with help here from probably the best community of Pro DFS players from around the world with chat, Cash recommendations, stat/metric spreadsheets, articles, correlation metrics for GPP’s and WR vs CB matchups week by week for the rest of the season. That you will find Here
This way you get an overall feel of where you should go with both cash and tournament plays every week in every sport. Anyway back to the floor and ceiling thing:
How to Get Floor and Ceiling Evaluations?
Well there is no clear cut way to determine the potential in a high variance situation as the NFL, however my Standard Deviation and Coefficient Variable weekly breakdown gives you a %90 accurate way of figuring this in a vaccum. However, these weekly rankings cannot take into account the week 14 or any other week situations. For example LaGarett Blount may not seem like a favorable RB for this week. And I would agree he not for 50/50 or double up contests. However you could take him at his low price on hybrids for the upside of having lost Karyon Johnson and the fact that he has scored 2 Touchdowns the last 2 games and… The opposing lowly defense is terrible vs the run in terms of rushing touchdown allowed.
You can also help for this at CBS HQ or sportsline
So there you have it, find the situation and the matchup that can tell a story, only partially based off the numbers. His own stats won’t show all of the story, but coaching tendancies will. In this same case, the Lions also go to other RB’s throughout the course of the game.
If you find any interesting matchups for this week, or strategy in this very interesting sunday for injured RB’s let me know below.
BTW, the best place you can find these kind of updates, which could dramatically change the outcome of your fantasy cash and tournament plays, download the “playerline” app to receive constant updates on players.
What seems like the most popular game at this point of the season in any fantasy football league is the fanduel 50/50. This pays out %50 with a margin of only %10 going to the site, and the winners %90 of the investment back, which is fine in nfl dfs.
So here I have decided, since the chalk factor does not matter, as talked about in my previous article, I will give out the best fantasy lineups for cashing in on fanduel. This information is usually paid for from handicapper sites like Sportsline.com or other higher paying sites.
Here is my personal “Chalk Lineup” on Draftkings that you can always modify by 1 or 2 players as I would always recommend due to injury status changes and/or vegas line changes.
See below the lineup for more on generating lineups in multiple contests, increasing your cash flow per your winnings!
Mayfield has the presence of mind on the field to avoid the rush and deliver to any open receiver. The rushing yards could be perhaps more but he does run a few time in most games. His numbers have been very consistent in his past 5 games which I like as a sample size.
Elliott has very good, most in volume and with the Cowboys trying to shore up the division, they will continue to lean heavily on him. I can’t see Phila. shutting him down as they are average and they have to content with the emerging Receivers along with Dak. I also like S. Barkley but they won’t provide as much volume as Elliott and could start dispelling more with W. Gallman to preserve his high risk style of running.
Lindsay has everything you need in this price range of only 6,300 making him very playable as a 2nd RB instead of the risky options of guys that are filling in for injured players like on the 49ers and steelers, as I will save those for tournaments and hybrid lineups. The consistent money is in Lindsay as they have very few viable options on that team with E. Sanders out for the rest of season.
Allen has been a mainstay this season after a slow start, as he has gotten some great matchups, the bengals offense is average DvP and getting worse. The slot matchup in particular is one of the worst in the league.
Edelman has his competition in this offense, and there is a slight risk of the game blowing out and Edleman not being used, but I don’t think this will happen. The spread is only 7 points, and the dolphins DO NOT run a lot of plays per game. The Pats are above average in this particular category, and is a great bump for the offense overall as long as it stays closer.
Godwin has efficient numbers in another favorable matchup as Mike Evans puts him in another favorable position and chalk for the week. How could you not take the value at 4,900 at DK?
McDonald could be the most consistent TE on the week at least with the upside of possible TD in the spot but not TD dependent with 5 targets per game and 70+ yards per game.
His floor is fine per the last 3 games, and if he actually breaks one run, despite his nagging injury you can lock him in for this price range unless his status changes, he is expected to play, fits in well with this full point PPR.
The most logical conclusion, is KC for an affordable and potentially big play defense, as surprisingly the Ravens run among the most plays in the NFL, providing more opportunities, with a bonus of HOFer Eric Berry if he returns. Even without they have performed well most of the year.
UPDATE:So this lineup is set for lock this sunday morning as there are no hikups so far after 7 am.
So if you want to make multiple lineups fast and diversify your lineups by 2-3 unique players, adjusting your exposure to certain players in up to 100 lineups at a time within the cap salary, and with as much randomness as you want, visit the Draftdashboard.com for a 30 day trial for next to nothing
Here’s a few photos of the mass lineups generator when you go there:
When making your draftkings or full PPR rankings for week 14 of the 2018 season, keep in mind to consult this list, as I rank them in order on the main slate in terms of highest projected totals in points in this particular order as usual from week to week.
Keep in mind, if a player has a certain metric such as a low implied team total, injury concern, or a low snap count I will exclude the player from the list, since the player would be considered high risk for tournaments onlMove to Trashy. I will do a tournament video below this list to show you exactly how to generate GPP lineups. Here’s my video breakdown, including the RB’s here
For week 13 we have a lot of possibilities for stacking in tournaments vs cash game lineups breakdown, as I will provide a video overview of how to leverage the best stacks of the week.
For your main games however, here is the best model for combining various projection systems such as the tools I use, Draftdashboard, DFSArmy, Sportsline, and my own usual SD/CV system for obtaining the best consistency rating over the past 5 game sample, which also takes into consideration the full season average at these given positions. Hope you enjoy the week, and check back throughout the week for more updated content including the Cash and GP videos, for finding these almost perfect lineups. Remember to visit my “Starters of Consistency” post so that you can use the exact same formula, with any variation you would like to add, into your rankings for players listed here or not on my pool for this week.
Here is a quick tutorial on some Cash game items to consider this week for dfs advice and picks.
note: As you move down the list, you are more likely to find good tournament plays for your strategy this week based on a higher standard deviation, which will correlate better with cash game lineups in stacks.
Cash Game RB’s
9.6, 30.1 PG 25.5 Past 5
14, 25.3 PG 32.4 Past 5
11.5, 27.1 PG 29 Past 5
Update: Replace with S. Ware
10.7, 16.8 PG 16.8 Past 5
9.7, 15.5 PG 21.4 Past 5
6.1, 15.3 PG 18.8 Past 5
10.6 19.5 PG 20 Past 5
12 PG 12.6 PF 21.3 Past 5
9.4, 18 PG 17.5 Past 5
12, 12.6 PG 10.7 Past 5
13.4 PG 25.5 Last Gm
7.95, 11.6 PG 13.5 Past 5
7.7, 14 PG 18 Past 5
7.7, 10.5 PG 9.15 Past 5
9.8, 13.8 PG 16.1 Past 5
Cash Game WR’s
15.6, 24.3 PG 25.2 Past 5
7.8, 25.9 PG 22.9 Past 5
7.7, 21.2 PG 19.5 Past 5
5.4, 22.8 PG 21.4 Past 5
2.9, 23.3 PG 26.2 Past 5
7.2, 20.7 PG 21.5 Past 5
7.5, 18.1 PG 21.1 Past 5
14.4 21.3 PG 20 Past 5
12, 20.2 PG 18.8 Past 5
2, 17.6 PG 13.9 Past 5
9 18.3 PG 16.4 Past 5
10.1, 15.4 PG 14.4 Past 5
12.3, 17.9 PG 19.1 Past 5
4.2, 17.9 PG 19 Past 5
10.6, 17.5 PG 16 Past 5
7.5, 15 PG 14.8 Past 5
Cash Game QB/TE Stacks
note: I do recommend stacking in cash games, QB/TE to obtain a bit more upside in your lineups. These have the best correlation, along with S.D.
8.9, 30.8 PG 32.4 Past 5
4.75, 24.1 PG 23 Past 5
8.9, 25.4 PG 28 Past 5
8, 22.8 PG 20.4 Past 5
4.7, 21.2 PG 18 Past 5
3.2, 20 PG 22.9 Past 5
2.8, 24.3 PG 24.2 Past 5
7.95, 22.3 PG 20.1 Past 5
9.4, 20.9 PG 24.4 Past 10
4, 19.4 PG 17.4 Past 5
6, 18.4 PG 15.6 Past 5
8.6, 19.2 PG 21.3 Past 5
10.7, 14.8 PG 13.7 Past 5
3.6, 12.1 PG 11.3 Past 10
6.8, 9.7 PG 11.2 Past 4
4.2, 8.9 PG 6.4 Past 5
I will try to remember to put up a video on how to get the best defense/special teams into your lineups as well, which is very important.
I will also give you a peek at the defenses of the week per the DFSArmy Tool, as the defenses may surprise you a bit according to projected rankings.
Here is a quick video rundown of how to figure in the defensive factors:
This week 12 has us on a 10 game slate which is not bad since there are 3 games off the slate. If you had considered my Week 11 picks under this exact same format and evaluation, with a few tweeks of course leading up to kickoff with injuries and deep analysis per the video below, i believe you will also have the most successful week you’ve had thus far in 2018 on DraftKings
Starting with getting your RB’s right
11.5, 26.2 PG 27.5 Past 5
7, 27 PG 26.3 Past 5
10, 22.6 PG 24.6 Past 5
12.9, 25 PG 26 Past 5
6.6, 14.9 PG 17.4 Past 5
10.7, 17.5 PG 18.8 Past 5
13.75, 11.1 PG 16.2 Past 5
9.4, 17.4 PG 16.5 Past 5
20.5 PG 21 Past 5
12.7, 17.2 PG 19.8 Past 5
12, 12.6 PG 10.7 Past 5
11.6 PG not played lately
11, 15.75 PG 15.8 Past 5
10.3, 9.9 PG 14 Past 5
10.4, 10.7 PG 12.5 Past 5
7.6, 12.3 PG 13.4 Past 5
Deep WR Options
4.4, 21.8 PG 22.5 Past 5
7.8, 21.4 PG 21.5 Past 5
5, 17 PG 17.2 Past 5
12, 20.2 PG 18.8 Past 5
6, 18.7 PG 15.9 Past 5
18.3 PG May not Play
13.3, 17.3 PG 18.3 Past 5
9 18 PG 18.3 Past 5
4.2, 17.9 PG 19 Past 5
9.2, 13.7 PG 11.2 Past 5
10, 17.1 PG 16 Past 5
9, 15.2 PG 13.3 Past 5
7.7, 12.6 PG 14.6 Past 5
5, 8.6 PG 11.8 Past 5
3, 15.2 PG 9 Past 5
5.2, 14 PG 12.1 Past 5
QB/TE Combos – Great for Stacking
3, 23.9 PG 24.9 Past 5
4.75, 24.1 PG 23 Past 5
7.8, 25.8 PG 25.8 Past 5
5.6, 19.4 PG 18.8 Past 5
4.8, 20.6 PG 22.6 Past 5
3, 19.5 PG 22.3 Past 5
19.9 PG able to finish?
3.8, 17.6 PG 18.4 Past 5
5.4, 18.2 PG 14.8 Past 5
4.5, 21.6 PG 19.2 Past 5
6, 18.4 PG 15.6 Past 5
13 19.9 PG 17 Past 5
7, 15.4 PG 16 Past 5
3.6, 11.6 PG 11.2 Past 5
6.6, 10 PG 10.4 Past 4
10.7, 14.8 PG 12.8 Past 5
To finish up this post, here are my top watched Cash game plays on the site for this week 12 here:
This week we delve into the weekly rankings on draftkings instead of fanduel, as a lot of people are having success there as well using the coaching and advice offered on various sites such as this and others included with large communities where you can even ask questions specific to your scenario in fantasy football wherever you play and in whatever format. Here’s your consistency rankings, keying in on the past 5 weeks, on no only the main slate but the sunday thru monday slate as for intrique.
Here is also an explanation of the spreadsheet here, as well as sources of info to build out this cash strategy.
Here’s a link to the spreadsheet for gathering more data for Wins in DFS:
Here is your Week 10 NFL Cash Game Rankings for this week. As ususal, I we have been putting it out since week 3, enough data to allow you to see for free the standard deviation and co-efficient variation rankings, as you can easily to to use these for your cash and tournaments, mainly for cash, since that is mostly related to consistency in fantasy.
Don’t forget though, you need to large enough upside in 50/50’s that are fairly large, being 50+ to separate yourself and not be struggling to get to the %50 mark. So sprinkles of high upside and corresponding variance are welcomed in cash plays.
I would also recommend checking out RotoGrinders for odds of the day and how they change, as well as Sportsline.com for expert picks and fantasy football analysis. Knowing what to expect on game day and any variances in opinion in Vegas help your fantasy team a lot.
Standard Deviation and CV Rankings.
These are for the main 1pm sunday slate on fanduel.
If you are looking for a numberfire premium promo, not only will I tell you why, as an experienced fantasy football and dfs player, why there may be a better alternative but give you 2 alternative promos that will provide the same, if not more info then numberfire’s sports analysis.
NumberFire Premium Review
So her’s what you get as a review of the numberfire premium package options. Here’s a link to NumberFire Premium if needed
To be able to get the most popular package, including the game spread picks for all 4 major american sports you will have to pay $29.99 per month. This is not a bad price. The question is though, per my title, whether you need this info or a majority of it for your fantasy sports lineups.
Well, the truth of the matter is the more information you can fit into your brain the better.
However, realizing that we are limited as human beings, not insulting our intellectual ability, we would also like to do with as much bang for the but as possible, even if it only saves a few buck. Therefore the promo code helps us save those few bucks as a savvy internet subscription buyer. While I could go ahead and tell you what works best for me in fantasy sports, it may not work as well for you, as you may be doing something slightly different or in a different style than what I do as a fantasy sports expert. But I am here to give you my best recommendation for the rest of this 2018 season and beyond.
If you listen to the numberfire podcast or read through the website you know the kind of conservative, and frankly sometimes boring analysis that is given there on a weekly basis in the major sports categories. Although I have not heard anything on NBA or NHL, 2 of the major sports they miss on the podcast for some reason.
What Are Other Options?
Did you know you can get these types of articles in vegas picks analysis, from statistical engineers, and mathematics, along with their actual winning lineups which you can use to dominate small tournaments or cash games on fanduel, draftkings, and draft.com for only $10 per month?
This is more of a handicapping method, although all the major sports including NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL here on this site give excellent values for recommendations as how to get the best value plays into your lineups, which is essential for winning contests on fanduel and draftings, including pheripherials for the site you are playing on when you click on the players name under the value rankings section, which is kind of hidden there, as I discovered after some time of casually using it, I kind of like it as a 2nd opinion site before making my final lineup decisions for my slate I am playing on for the day or night.
Advanced Metric Tools
If you would like a way to manage with more advanced tools for analysis, you will have to of course pay a bit more, although that not being
available at sportsline, you can get more data comparable to, with more data including a soon to some mass lineups generator so that you can bank all the cash in most lineups you make, using the DraftDashBoard Customizable lineups tool. The promo is already set up for you, so no need to enter any code.
Here is a brief overview of above of what you actually get: No useless info to pay for with data that’s not important to use, nor sports that your not into. The 12 main features outduels numberfire’s premium access, with the weekly DFS/Betting expert Derrick Thomas’s weekly NFL picks that and avoids that rarely go wrong. In addition to the above features I will explain another important feature on video here:
You won’t know if you will win or lose until you win or lose as a basketball coach recently stated.
So use all of the resources you can. I would recommend getting all of the tools including the Numberfire analytics, so use their system, especially for cash games, You won’t hit on every lineup but you can give yourself a better chance to hit them.
You should love the optimizer you use, and be in there a lot, along with any film in game study for tournaments as well as listening to podcasts, radio and other media to gauge the chalk and give yourself the best advantage in competition without overwhelming yourself. The Draftdashboard definitly helps you do that, just like I used in the video above.
I will also give weekly, and for free, my Cash as well as my Tournament Video in side the weely, so that you can have better explanation related to the week in fantasy football on fanduel, as what I specialize in.
One more thing that I am giving away here is a free report, so that you may have a more thorough explanation of the consistency rankings process and overview of what it takes to be successful in fantasy sports at dfsfreereport.com
Thank you for visiting today, and if you have had any experiences or use of these tools with any success stories we would love to hear about them and comment below.
Also keep checking back for my weekly projection updates, great to use for cash games on fanduel, as I persue my passion in the fantasy sports arena.